Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
The Master Cycle Update
Forecast from our public 2/15 blogpost: “The Master Cycle is expecting a short term 2/16H“ Forecast from 2/22 T&C Update: “The adjusted MC, shifted +1 and the Bitcoin Cycles, suggesting a 2/22L, then a continued rally for 2 more days 2/26H, before we see a decline into 2/27L. The 2 cycles above are now pretty much identical “ Actual: The Master Cycle (MC) […]
EC Send In The Canadians
August 2014 was the peak in the U.S. energy sector, as long time investors know too well. The Alerian MLP Index remains down by more than a third, and larger firms are increasingly abandoning the structure to become regular corporations (“C-corps”). The Shale Revolution has tested the old model of paying out 90% or more […]
Consumer Spending +0.2% Prices +0.4%: Real Spending Declined 0.1%
Personal income rose 0.4% in January, but consumers only spent half of the boost. The BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report for January shows a boost bigger boost in income and prices than spending. Key Points Personal income increased $64.7 billion (0.4 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable […]
Stocks Jump, Dollar Dumps As Powell Flip-Flops On Inflation
Who could have seen that coming? On Tuesday Fed Chair Powell proclaimed hawkishly: “CONFIDENCE ON INFLATION GETTING STRONGER“ 700 Dow points lower and VIX back above 20 and we arrive at this morning and Powell’s flip-flop: “NO STRONG EVIDENCE OF DECISIVE MOVE UP IN WAGES, MORE LABOR MARKET GAINS CAN OCCUR WITHOUT CAUSING INFLATION” So dovish […]
Jobless Claims: Ludicrous Mode
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, weekly jobless claims continue to amaze us. In this week’s report, first-time claims came in at 210K, which was 15K below the consensus estimate of 225K. The last time a weekly print came in that low was in 1969! It has now been seven straight weeks […]
Crude Oil Declines On Rising U.S. Stockpiles
Global crude oil prices declined on continuous rising U.S.crude inventories. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3.02 million barrels to 423 million last week, representing the fourth increase in five weeks, according to the Energy Information Administration report released on Wednesday. The highest level since December 2017 and more than the 3 million barrels projected by […]
When America’s Fiscal Crisis Hits, Be Forewarned That Tax Increases Will Make A Bad Situation Worse
At some point in the next 10 years, there will be a huge fight in the United States over fiscal policy. This battle is inevitable because politicians are violating the Golden Rule of fiscal policy by allowing government spending to grow faster than the private sector (exacerbated by the recent budget deal), leading to ever-larger budget deficits. I’m more […]
Allergan Slides After Mylan, Revance Report Deal For Botox Biosimilar
Shares of Allergan (AGN) are under pressure this morning after Mylan (MYL) and Revance Therapeutics (RVNC) announced an agreement for the development and commercialization of a proposed biosimilar to Botox. Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration extended the PDUFA date for Allergan’s uterine fibroid candidate, ulipristal acetate, with Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan arguing it […]
Why The Next Recession Will Be A Doozy
SALTA, ARGENTINA – “Stocks Slide After Powell Testimony,” reads a headline at Bloomberg. The Dow dropped 380 points yesterday, leaving February as the worst month in two years. What did the new Fed chief say? Only that he thought the economy was doing so well that the Fed would be able to continue raising rates […]
4 Inverse ETFs That Soared More Than 20% In February
February was the month of heightened volatility as rising concerns over faster-than-expected rates hike continued to shake the complacency off the stock market. This is especially true as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the fear gauge, traded in a wide range of high of more than 50 to a low of 12.50. […]
