Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Inflation Still Isn’t About Inflation
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose back above 2% in September 2017 for the first time since April. Boosted yet again by energy prices, consumer prices overall still aren’t where the Fed needs them to be (by its own policies, not consumer reality). In fact, despite a 10.2% gain in the energy price index […]
The Endgame Of Financialization: Stealth Nationalization
This is the new model of nationalization: central banks control the valuation of private-sector assets without actually having to own them lock, stock and barrel. As you no doubt know, central banks don’t actually print money and toss it out of helicopters; they create a digital liability and use this new currency to buy assets such […]
General Dynamics: A Wide Moat Dividend Aristocrat With Double-Digit Payout Growth Potential
With its 25th straight annual dividend increase, General Dynamics (GD) has finally joined the dividend aristocrats list here. However, even more impressive than the length of this streak is the torrid pace of payout growth GD investors have enjoyed. Specifically, the company has grown its dividend at 14.1% annually since 1992, helping General Dynamics’ shares nearly double […]
E The World’s Economic Recovery Has Momentum, But Growth Is Still Is Subpar
The OECD provides one of the more authoritative international economic reviews. Although in its latest publication the global outlook has hardly changed from one prepared three months earlier, it is encouraging that most of the changes for the advanced economies were in a positive direction. Global GDP is currently expected to increase by around 3.5% […]
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed – Friday, October 13
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Hungary (+2.8%), Qatar (+2.6%), and Taiwan (+2.5%) have outperformed this week, while Mexico (-1.3%), Egypt (-0.8%), and Colombia (-0.5%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 2.2% this week while MSCI DM rose 0.8%. In […]
Make Bad Data Great Again! CPI Edition
As soon as the CPI print hit (and missed), our assessment was simple: Buy stocks!!! And for those who have wisely chosen not subject themselves to our profane Twitter feed, here’s the expanded version: ok: unload your long USD positions, get long USTs and stocks, then go ahead on to the bar. algos will take […]
October 2017: ECRI’s WLI Growth Index Rate Expands Further
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion after a brief dip into contraction. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicatingr modest growth six months from today. Current ECRI WLI […]
Where The U.S. Exports Oil And Petroleum Products
Exports of U.S. petroleum and petroleum products have surged in recent years. Here were the biggest buyers of these exports in 2016. This year the U.S. has averaged more than 900,000 barrels per day (BPD) of crude oil exports while continuing to import an average of 8.1 million BPD. In the previous article, I discussed the reasons […]
U.S. Consumer Price Index Rises Amid Surge In Gasoline Prices
Rising gasoline prices boosted Consumer Price Index in September but not enough to validate December rate hike. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent in September, according to the Labor Department report released on Friday. This is better than the 0.4 percent increase recorded in August but slightly below the 0.6 percent expected by economists. […]
US Dollar Outlook And What It Means For Gold
The US Dollar Index (USDI) bottomed in September a hair below 91.00 and has recently rallied up to 94. We were skeptical Gold would break its 2016 highs as it failed to show strong performance in the wake of the USDI’s decline to new lows. The market was discounting a coming rebound in the USDI […]
