Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Out Of Sync
I have written many times about the tendency for the market to follow various seasonal patterns. Frankly, it is eerie how often the S&P 500 winds up mirroring these historical cycles. To be sure, the market doesn’t always follow the seasonal patterns and therefore, it doesn’t pay to trade heavily on what history suggests may […]
The Fed Is About To Cause A Recession
And now back to your regularly scheduled recession predictions. Last month, the 5s30s was on everyone’s radar screen when it dropped below 91.6bp for the first time since December 2007. A couple of fleeting steepening episodes notwithstanding, things haven’t really changed since. Well now, with the Fed looking hell-bent on sticking to their near-term rate path […]
Bullish Sentiment Approaching 40%
This week’s sentiment survey from AAII showed an increase in bullish sentiment back near 40% and back near the recent high of 41.29% from mid-September. While 40% is hardly an extreme reading by any stretch of the imagination, this year there have only been four weeks where bullish sentiment actually topped 40%. With 40% being hard enough, an […]
Political Focus Shifting In Europe
There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump’s election was not going to sweep through Europe. The euro gapped higher on April 24, and it has not looked back. We have suggested that with the outcome of the German election, European politics shift from tailwind to headwind. […]
October 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves Again
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria impacted this week’s claims – but significantly less than previous weeks. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 250 K to 275 K (consensus 252,000), and the Department of Labor reported 243,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported […]
Pound Drops On Reports That Brexit Talks Have Hit Deadlock
The US dollar showed some mixed dynamics in Thursday’s European session. It’s made gains against the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and British pound while losing ground against the Kiwi and Aussie dollars as well as the Japanese yen. The euro is trading slightly up against the greenback. When trading opened in Europe, buyers erased the […]
Citigroup Q3 Earnings Improve, High Revenues Recorded
Have you been eager to see how Citigroup Inc. (C – Free Report) performed in Q3 in comparison with the market expectations? Let’s quickly scan through the key facts from this New York-based money center bank’s earnings release this morning: Earnings Improve Citigroup came out with earnings per share of $1.42, compared favorably with earnings of $1.24 in the […]
September Producer Price Index: Final Demand Up 0.4% MoM
Today’s release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from last month’s 0.2%. It is at 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.4% MoM, up from 0.1% the […]
Dow Jones Commodity Index Is Supporting A Higher Price Of Gold
The Dow Jones Commodity Index is a broad measure of the commodity futures market that emphasizes diversification and liquidity through an equal-weighted approach. It doesn’t allow any sector to make up more than 33% of its portfolio or any single commodity to make up more than 15%. Gold is the top weighted commodity of the […]
Bitcoin Breaking Above 5K. Now Up To 7000, Or Back Below 4400?
Bitcoin is breaking to a new high, which was expected after that sharp fall back in September, viewed as a correction within an ongoing uptrend. There is room for current fifth wave rise up to 6k or even 7k, but be aware that its final leg within big five wave recovery, so corrective turn, a […]
