Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Metals Brief 2018 – Monday, Jan. 29
Predicting the likely path of the prices of the metals in the near term is easy. Just look at the fundamentals. We have invested many man-years in developing the theory, model, and software to calculate it. Every week we publish charts and our calculated fundamental prices. However, predicting the outlook for a longer period of […]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Business Index Highest In 12 Years
This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 33.4, up from 29.7 in December. Here is an excerpt from the latest report: Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production […]
Japanese Yen: Bank Of Japan Versus Interest Rates
Japan has suffered from weak growth and inflation since the global financial crisis, and the Bank of Japan has frequently experimented with unorthodox monetary policies. In September 2016, the BoJ decided to directly target long-term interest rates. The so-called “yield curve control” (YCC) program fixed 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields at 0%. If yields […]
The Age Of Expensiveness
If it seems like just about every asset class is expensive, then you’re probably paying good attention to reality. Our indicators show a curious situation where 3 of the major asset classes; stocks, treasuries, and property, are all overvalued. There’s a couple of good reasons why this has come to pass, and there’s a few […]
PayPal Falls As SoftBank Plans Digital Payments System
Shares of PayPal (PYPL) are falling after a report that Japanese conglomerate SoftBank (SFTBF) is considering the creation of a digital payments system. SOFTBANK MULLS PAYMENTS SYSTEM: SoftBank is considering a plan to lead a bank-backed consortium to develop a digital payments system to compete with PayPal, Apple Pay (AAPL) and Alibaba’s (BABA) Alipay, The […]
This ETF Is A Safe Bet Even When U.S. Stocks Fall
I know it hasn’t happened in some time. But, someday, the U.S. stock market will decline. The bears are making good arguments. From a fundamental perspective, the bears warn stocks are as overvalued as they were before market crashes in 2000 and 2008. I believe more gains lie ahead for U.S. stocks, but other global […]
Timing The Late Cycle
The Other Model Indicators Let’s take a look at the indicators in the macro model to see whether the stock market is overvalued and if the economy is late in the cycle. In my opinion, many of the indicators are distorted making this model a talking point rather than actionable advice. I skipped the consumer […]
The Outer Limits Of Sentiment
Of all the moving parts contradicting the narrative of the growing economic boom, it’s incomes that will do it the most disservice. After all, there can be no such thing without them. Until our future robot AI overlords finally descend to either free humanity from labor, or eliminate us altogether, the economy still runs on the basic […]
EURJPY: Declines On Bear Pressure
EURJPY now looks to weaken further after it saw a move lower during Monday trading session. On the downside, support comes in at the 134.00 level where a break if seen will aim at the 133.50 level. A cut through here will turn focus to the 133.00 level and possibly lower towards the 132.50 level. […]
