Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Interest Rates Are Never Going Back To Normal
Grotesque Mutants BALTIMORE – Let’s see… U.S. corporate earnings have been going down for three quarters in a row. The median household income is lower than it was 10 years ago. And now JPMorgan Chase has increased its estimated risk of a recession to about one in three. From the grotesque mutants collection Image via […]
It’s Day 26 Of The Rally – Decision Time
In September/October 2015, the S&P 500 miraculously rallied just over 13% in 25 days amid falling earnings expectations, before collapsing back to fresh cycle lows. It has now been 25 days (and just over 13%) since the Mid-Feb lows (and earnings expectations are plumbing new lows)… The same but different? h/t @ErikFridman Nope… The […]
Apple Is An Attractively Valued Dividend Stock
Analysis Overview – Apple (NYSE: AAPL) is unlikely to grow sales or earnings at a scorching pace in the coming years, but the stock is worth considering for value creation through dividends and buybacks. Apple On Buyback Spree – Apple has bought back shares worth $35 billion in LTM and $103 billion in the last five years. This […]
Market Psychology Inputs
“Davidson” submits: Markets have as inputs market psychology which sloshes about concerning 3 key investor perceptions-see figure: 1) Basic to all is the Prevailing Rate which is economic growth + inflation. The psychology around this is something you just experienced. Deflation was feared in 2008-2009 followed by fear of hyper-inflation in 2010-2014 and now we […]
USD/JPY And AUD/USD Forecast – March 21, 2016
USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Friday, bouncing off of the 111 level below that of course has offered quite a bit of support. Because of this, it looks if we are ready to continue consolidating in general, and we could rise as high as the […]
EC May The Phillips Curve Rest In Peace
In 1958, economist William Phillips claimed there was a historical inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and the corresponding rate of inflation. His conclusion was that full employment (whatever that means) was inflationary. He illustrated his claim through a chart referred to as the Phillips Curve. The 1970’s stagflation outbreak in the U.S, which […]
E The Daily Shot And Data – March 21, 2016
Greetings, We start with Russia where the central bank did not cut rates in spite of falling inflation. Given the persistent economic weakness, the rationale for such policy is unclear other than an attempt to strengthen the ruble further. This is certainly a hawkish stance by the Bank of Russia. Source: Natixis Driven by firmer […]
Dollar Reversal
“Davidson” submits: My call of 18mos ago that the US$ would reverse once this Momentum Trade had run its course was based on understanding Free Markets. One cannot time these things, but one can understand then qualitatively. Many losses in energy related and Intl issues will be reversed by the current weakening in the US$. […]
Silver Prices Are Trying To Carve Out A Short-Term Low
The technical outlook from Friday still stands. On Friday we stated that the overall trend is bullish above the March 16 low of $15.21 and traders may see a pullback to the $15.57 – $15.81 range as an opportunity to add to their bullish exposure. Today we are seeing signs of this scenario playing out. The $15.57 – $15.81 range was […]
Greek Banks Admit To Charging For Converting Large Bills
Note: How nice of them to be ‘honest’ for once. However, like the writer says, this is a clever way to ‘call in the money’. The Greeks are much smarter than Americans. The Greeks fear confiscation. The only negative aspect of this type of move likely to be noticed in America is the inconvenience of […]
