Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
E The War Over Trade Policy In The White House
The Financial Times reported that “a civil war has broken out within the White House over trade”[1]. The war has the economic nationalists squaring off against the pro-trade factions from Wall Street. Readers are well-versed in the pro-trade approach since this philosophy has dominated policy making worldwide starting in the 1960s with the Kennedy round […]
Strong NFP Data Hint To Fed Rate Hike
There is noteworthy likelihood for the Federal Reserve to decide for an interest rate increase this week given that the latest U.S. employment data exceeded expectations once again. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released by the U.S. Department of Labour showed that the number of new jobs created during February increased to 235,000. This was […]
Here’s What The Market Could Do For The 3rd Time In 17 Years
The major averages continue to set record highs, which provides further evidence that Wall Street is becoming more complacent with the growing dichotomy between equity prices and the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. When investors view the Total market cap to GDP ratio, it becomes strikingly clear that economic growth has not at all […]
Fed Unlikely To Surprise Markets This Week
Expectations High For Rate Hike Markets do not like surprises. If the Fed raises interest rates at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, it is not likely to be placed in the unexpected category. From The Financial Times: “Investors are placing a near 100 per cent chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this month – the […]
GBP/USD Elliott Wave View: Bounce Started
Last week, GBP/USD ended the cycle from 02/02/2017 peak which unfolded as a double three Elliott wave structure with a FLAT in the Y leg. Pair slightly exceeded 123.6 Fibonacci extensions (1.2145) of the first 3 swings lower from 2/2 peak before making a push higher today. With the bounce seen today, it has become clearer that […]
EC Good Models And Bad Models
I have recently begun to spend a fair amount of time explaining the difference between a “good model” and a “bad model;” it seemed to me that this was a reasonable topic to put on the blog. The difference between a good model and a bad model isn’t as obvious as it seems. Many people […]
Fed Fever And Crashing Crude In The Ides Of March – MM
The rate hike is coming. But what does it mean for markets? We start with the big upcoming event and then continue to the slippery nature of oil prices before previewing other events in the Ides of March. Fed fever: The NFP cemented the rate hike but the US dollar dropped. What happened? Moving forward, can […]
The Next Act In The Play…
Good Monday morning and welcome back. To be sure, this week’s meeting of Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers will be the focal point for the markets. In case you’ve been sleeping under a rock for the past month, note that the markets are expecting the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday. […]
US Credit Growth Is Decelerating Across A Variety Of Areas
This week all eyes will be on the Fed because of its expected interest rate hike and the messaging that will accompany its policy decision. But credit markets should also be focused elsewhere, because credit growth has been decelerating across a wide array of markets for months now. And this trend has not let up […]
Markets Prepare For Fed Hike
■ Feb Nonfarm reports 235K jobs added to U.S. economy, but market expected more ■ Hawkish Draghi comments aid EUR/USD to highest since Feb, at 1.07 ■ Higher bond yields drag S&P500, Dow, NASDAQ to losses ■ Oil prices slide 9.3% weekly on crude buildup A tense trading week ended with upsized volatility on Friday, […]
