Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
The 3 Biggest Picture ‘Long-Short’ Trades In The World
Eight years after the beginning of “Bull & Fed’s Excellent Adventure”, BofA’s Michael Hartnett is starting to have his doubts. The bull market catalyst – extraordinary, unprecedented central bank policies – is fading globally and the so-called “Humpty-Dumpty’ Trade looms: The Fed has hiked 2 times in past 10 years; March 15th will be the 2nd hike in 3 months […]
ETFs In Focus On Exxon’s Big Investment Plans
ExxonMobil Corp’s (XOM) chief, Darren Woods announced on Monday (March 6, 2017) that the company will invest $20 billion to expand its manufacturing capacity and create 45000 jobs in the U.S. The new head of the state, President Trump expressed his satisfaction with the development and called Exxon a true success story. Exxon now looks to […]
Stock Consolidation Patterns In Trend Following
Stock consolidation patterns give investors potential to take up new positions in trend following or even add on a successful position. When adding or pyramiding, one should not get to top heavy. When I add to my stock positions, I will only add 10% of my position size on any consolidation or even pull back […]
EC Has The S&P 500 Run Ahead Of Other Major Market Classes?
The sharp fall in oil prices was the most interesting market news last week. It sends a signal that investors are waking up the fact that the brittle OPEC output deal always was going to be challenged by U.S. producers restarting their drills as prices rose. I am no expert, but this does not come as a […]
Base-Line Shifts In Commodity Prices
The stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones seems to be at an inflection point. It hasn’t seen a new all-time high since March 1st. And for what it’s worth, trading volume (market demand) for the 30 blue-chip companies contained in the Dow Jones is falling off. It needs to be noted that until […]
The U.S. Economy, Post-Payrolls & Pre-FOMC
This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds, currencies and related indicators and market internals. With FOMC on tap there will be more data noise directly ahead, but then I expect markets to smooth out […]
Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Ahead – March 13
EM FX ended last week on a firm note despite the strong US jobs data, with the dollar succumbing to some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” price action. We think the dollar should recover as the week begins, as it seems risky to be short/underweight dollars going into the FOMC meeting. With the Fed […]
4 Big Winners Of Trump’s Healthcare Plan
On Tuesday, the Trump administration provided its formal backing to a draft bill introduced by House Republicans which aims to repeal and replace the Obamacare healthcare law. Such an action comes as no surprise since Trump has always been an outspoken critic of the Affordable Care Act. Healthcare stocks declined on Monday after the GOP […]
Unparalleled Credit And Global Yields
New Fed Q4 Z.1 Credit and flow data was out this week. For the first time since 2007, annual Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) growth exceeded $2.0 TN – a bogey I’ve used as a rough estimate of sufficient new Credit to fuel self-reinforcing reflation. Based on some nebulous “neutral rate,” the Fed rationalizes that it’s […]
Canadian Dollar Remains Weak Thanks To Oil Decline, Data Generally Soft
Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD: Bullish – USD/CAD has rallied towards the top of a six-month range but further weakness may lie ahead – Canadian unemployment data posts significant beat, stabilizing Loonie. – Fed rate decision, oil inventories on Wednesday likely to drive oil, with repercussions for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar has been range bound for the last six-months against the USD and […]
