Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Lower Earnings, Higher Stock Prices: The Voting Machine
“The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly, but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers.”- Graham and Dodd, Security Analysis Earnings drive stock prices, so says investing lore. As earnings rise, stock prices move higher. As earnings fall, stock prices move […]
April 2015 Industrial Production: Weak Data Continues
The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) declined. This month the manufacturing portion of this index was unchanged month-over-month – but the other portions of industrial production declined. This is another weak report, and again under expectations. Headline seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) decreased 0.3% month-over-month and up 1.9% year-over-year. Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data is that […]
Someone Is Lying: Job Optimism Plummets To Levels Unseen Since Financial Crisis
The percentage of respondents to University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey that “think they (or their spouse) will lose their job over the next 5 years” soared to its highest since March 2009. Either the BLS’ workers are lying, or the government’s data on jobs is ‘misleading’ According to UMich Curtin: CURTIN: TRADE GAP’S INFLUENCE ON […]
5 Things To Ponder: Reading While Waiting List
This past week has been much the same as the last couple of months – boring. It has been more interesting trying to count carpet fibers in my office than watching the markets. However, there has been some excitement in domestic bond yields that have SURGED over the last couple of weeks. Well, as I […]
Industrial Production, Down 5th Month, Weaker Than Economist Expectations
Industrial production came in at -0.3%, down for the fifth consecutive month below the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate. Industrial production is stalling, down 0.3 percent in April for a 5th straight monthly contraction. Factories are cutting back with capacity utilization down 4 tenths to 78.2 percent. And the manufacturing component, which has been flat to negative […]
Great Graphic: Expectations For Lift-Off Solidify For September
This Great Graphic comes from the Wall Street Journal. It shows the evolution of market expectations for the first Fed rate hike from the monthly survey it conducts. At the start of the year, many economists, like ourselves, thought that a June hike was the most likely scenario. However, the weakness of Q1, and especially the poor job growth […]
Are You Ready For The Coming Debt Revolution?
Nothing to Lose There is a specter haunting America … and all the developed nations of the world. It is the specter of a debt revolution. We left off yesterday talking about how the economy of the last 30 years – and especially that of the last six years – has favored the old over the young. […]
Rural Wages Vs. Urban Pay: Time For Dorothy To Head Back To Kansas?
When I was in college there was a popular t-shirt that read: “Dear Aunt Em, Hate you, hate Kansas, taking the dog. Love, Dorothy.” The obvious reference to Wizard of Oz aside, it captured the sense of adventure people feel as they leave boring, ho-hum lives in rural or suburban areas to seek their fame and fortune. […]
Maybe It’ll Be Different This Time
Theories abound in the stock market world. Marketwatch has one story based on bearish sentiment of individual investors saying the market will surely soar to new heights. Just below that story they have one based on the Dow Theory that warns of a possible impending crash. I don’t give too much credence to individual investor […]
Empire State Manufacturing Conditions “Improved Slightly”
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 3.1 (3.09 to two decimals) shows an increase from last month’s -1.2, which signals a return to modest improvement in activity. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 5.0. The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of […]
