Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
EUR/USD 78.6% Bounce And USD/JPY Break Above 115
USD/JPY 4 hour The USD/JPY broke above the resistance top (dotted red) of the wave 1 (blue), which could start the wave 3 (brown) of wave 3 (blue). Price needs to reach at least the 161.8% Fibonacci target before the wave 3 can be confirmed. 1 hour The USD/JPY keeps pushing with higher highs and […]
A (Basic) Introduction To Bitcoin
In the business world things are constantly changing, in particular, the way we pay electronically for goods and services. I am often asked by those near retirement age about the concept and usage of the world’s first digital currency: Bitcoin. It’s truly a fascinating concept and yet a dangerous one since there is no telling […]
What Does Consumer Confidence Really Measure?
The Fed is a big believer in consumer confidence numbers. I never understood why because I never could see a strong correlation between confidence and spending. There is a strong correlation, but it isn’t spending habits. John Hussman provides the answer below. Multi-year highs in consumer confidence are less a sign of forthcoming consumer spending […]
The Quality Factor Is Now King
The Quality factor completed a six-week climb to the top of the factor rankings, knocking Value down to sixth place in the process. Financials and Technology sit atop the sector rankings, as Telecom falls to the bottom. Not much change from a global perspective, with Latin America still at the helm and Canada relegated to […]
Oil Falls & The GOP’s Timeline Extends Further
The bearish theses I have had for the past few weeks have been coming to fruition in the past few days. The reward for being correct has thus far been less than a 2% correction in the S&P 500. The tilt is clearly positive. Being precisely correct on two negative catalysts still hasn’t brought a […]
Silver Market Poised For Big Reversal When Institutional Investors Move In
The Silver Market is going to experience a big reversal when the Hedge Funds and Institutional investors rotate out of highly inflated stocks and into precious metals investments. This is not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. And the when, could be much sooner than we expect due to the huge problems […]
U.S. Banks Are Still Cheap – But How Much Good News Has Already Been Priced In?
U.S. large cap banks are now more than 65% above the lows from last June which should come as no surprise given the fact that they are the only sector that can directly benefit from rising interest rates and if we assume some dialing back in financial regulation as the Trump administration promises. The question […]
Time, The Biggest Risk
If there is still no current or present indication of rising economic fortunes, and there isn’t, then the “reflation” idea turns instead to what might be different this time as compared to the others. In 2013 and 2014, it was QE3 and particularly the intended effects (open ended and faster paced, a bigger commitment by the […]
Daily Trading Opportunities – Friday, March 10
During the session on Friday, we get a handful of announcements that could move the market, most significantly industrial numbers coming out of the United Kingdom. Ultimately, it’s likely that the market will continue to be a reasonably choppy. WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market has collapsed, and it appears that any time […]
Noted Forecaster Sean Spicer On CBO Projections
From The Hill: If you’re looking at the CBO for accuracy, you’re looking in the wrong place,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer said Wednesday. Since Mr. Spicer’s BA is in government rather than economics, I thought it useful to consult some documentation based on quantitative assessment. Here are three graphs from CBO, “CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: […]
