Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
EC Time In The Market, Not Timing The Market? Catchy Phrase Ignores Key Evidence
There is a reason why Warren Buffett regarded market-cap-to-GDP as “…the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The reason? Its relationship with 10-year forward returns for stock prices. And right now, stock market capitalization as it relates to the U.S. economy is projecting negative returns for U.S. stock prices. It is […]
EC The Plural Of Anecdotes Is Beige
As noted before, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book collection of local bank district anecdotes are fascinating for all the wrong reasons. What is revealed is not the state of the economy, but rather the state of how policymakers perceive or often wish the economy was at various points. If the 2007 Beige Books are a collective […]
ECB Preview- EUR/USD Rally Faces Moment Of Truth
EUR/USD Daily Timeframe Technical Outlook: Euro tested up-slope resistance yesterday after breaking above a multi-year trendline extending off the August 2015 high. Heading into the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision tomorrow, the immediate focus range is 1.1439-1.1616. The immediate advance as at risk while within this range with the broader outlook weighted to the topside while […]
JPM Slashes Iphone Sales Forecasts: Expects Only 2MM Units Sold In September Vs 9MM Previously
With the launch of the iPhone 8 just around the corner, sellside analysts are scrambling to revise their forecasts and position themselves “correctly” ahead of what will be the most anticipated new event in recent Apple history. In that context, JPM’s Rod Hall today updated his projections of how he envisions the upcoming launch will look, […]
Is The Real US Dollar Pain Trade Lower?
Although I am sure they were some traders advocating shorting the US dollar into the Trump bump, they sure seemed few and far between (apart from this badass cat who nailed the trade and is now covering into the USD weakness). In fact, when I think about the opinions from the “cool kids” over the […]
Amazon Serves Notice To Tech Hardware Industry: We’re Coming For Your Business
Recent talks between Amazon and VMware could ignite a second wave of cloud adoption, this time focused on brownfield cloud migration. A recent report covered by CNBC raises the specter of a massive shift of workloads from premises to clouds, something of notable concern to at least a dozen premises-bound tech leaders and perhaps a […]
6 Charts On GDP In China
With the release of the June quarter GDP results from China, it’s worth checking in on a few charts that show some of the key trends in China’s economy. The charts present mostly a cyclical view, but the structural trends and changes in the makeup of the economy are also clearly evident in the graphs […]
Close To New Gold Standard? Australia Exports Record Amount Of Gold To China
Are the Chinese getting close to announcing a new gold-backed currency? Well, if the record amount of Australian gold exports into China is an indicator, it may be close at hand. While the Chinese have been importing a lot of gold from Australia, it reached a new record high in 2017. According to the recently […]
Five Decades Of Middle-Class Wages: June 2017 Update
We’ve updated this series to include Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the June monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $37,121, down 12.5% from 44 years ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been collecting data on this workforce cohort since 1964. The government […]
Stocks To Keep An Eye On
(Photo Credit: 401(K) 2012) Philip Morris International (PM): Consumer Staples – Tobacco | Reports July 20, BMO. The Estimize consensus calls for EPS of $1.22, one cent lower than the Wall Street consensus and an increase of 6% YoY. Currently, the Estimize community is looking for sales of $6.99B, also lower than Wall Street 7.06B. The […]
