Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Trumped Up
Global markets are in a tizzy because of concerns that the latest revelation that President Donald Trump may have “obstructed justice” by asking former FBI director James Comey to go easy on Thomas “Mike” Flynn the retired United States Army lieutenant general who was the first national security advisor appointed by President Trump. Apparently, there […]
EC The Limits Of One-Indicator Recession Analysis
The search for a silver bullet in business-cycle analysis is hardy perennial. But it’s a search that’s almost certainly destined for failure. No single indicator is infallible in the quest to identify a new recession. Some pundits suggest otherwise, but history isn’t kind on this front. A recent example: US industrial production. Several observers of […]
After Mixed Earnings, Why Airlines ETF Is Flying Higher
The pure-play aviation ETF U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS – Free Report) gained about 8.3% in the last one month (as of May 15, 2017) compared with 3.4% returns offered by SPDRÂ S&P 500 ETF (SPY – Free Report) despite mixed earnings results. The industry is in the bottom 29% of the Zacks Industry Rank at the time of writing, giving bearish […]
Morning Call For Wednesday, May 17
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM17 -0.38%) this morning are down -0.42% and European stocks are down -0.39% on reports that President Trump asked then-FBI Director Comey to drop his investigation into former National Security Advisor Flynn. The dollar index tumbled to a 6-1/4 month low on the news while Jun COMEX gold (GCM17 +0.72%) jumped +0.72% to a […]
US Economy Likely Advanced At A Slower Pace In Q1, 2017
The preliminary estimates for the first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the U.S. will be published today by the Department of Commerce. Economists polled have forecast that the pace of economic activity in the three months ending March might have increased at a slower pace of 1.3%, compared to the previous quarter (Q4) of […]
UK GDP Q1 2017 Misses With 0.3% – GBP/USD Wobbles
The UK was expected to report a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% in its Gross Domestic Product in the first quarter of 2017. In Q4 2016, the economy grew by a robust 0.7%. Year over year, GDP carried expectations for +2.2% against 1.9% beforehand. GBP/USD was rising ahead of the publication, trading around 1.2930, the […]
Da Basics
We’re four days into the trading week. For me, Monday was a “2”, Tuesday was a “3”, Wednesday was a “6”, and Thursday was a “7”. So……….progress. A week that started off vomit-inducing is getting better. I’d appreciate Friday being a 10, thank you very much. The charts don’t necessarily point to that, however. The […]
US GDP Preview: Is The US Economy Grinding To A Halt? Finally The Hardest Data Of All
After a relatively slow 2016 with 1.6% growth, 2017 began with confusing data points. Business and consumer surveys point to robust growth. However, figures such as retail sales, durable goods orders and others point to a very slow rate of growth. Will the debate be settled now? The first release of GDP is the most […]
Advance Notice: Subtract 0.2 Percentage Points From GDP Report
Whatever the GDP report shows Friday morning, it’s likely to be on the high side by 0.2 percentage points. Of course, GDP is already one of the most revised stats, but this quarter estimate may be particularly bad due to methodology changes not implemented in time. The Wall Street Journal explains Why the GDP Report Could Make U.S. Growth Look Rosier […]
Sensex Opens Lower; Realty Stocks Drag
Asian equity markets are lower today as Chinese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Shanghai Composite is off 0.35%, while the Hang Seng is down 0.39%. The Nikkei 225 is trading down by 0.20%. The European markets ended Thursday’s session in the red as market participants were disappointed after the European Central Bank (ECB) again made no changes to its […]
