Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Slow Business Decisions Are Risky In An Uncertain Economy
Business decision-making is slowing down, according to a recent article by Tom Monahan. He documents slower sales cycles, slower decisions in hiring, slower implementation of IT projects, with reasons that include larger companies, more attention to risk and over-collaboration. Monahan talks of the cost, but he doesn’t spend much time on the scariest part of the […]
Gold And Paper 1951 – 2016
——— Argentina: 1951 ——— = 117 Argentinian 5 Peso notes ***** But after government meddling and central bank printing … 65 years later: ——— Argentina: 2016 ——— = 20,000,000,000,000,000 Argentinian 5 Peso notes (After adjusting for the 10 trillion to one devaluations in the past 50 years.) ——— United States: 1951 ——— = 7 […]
Unbreaking Okun
There was a robust debate inside economics earlier in the recovery period over Okun’s “Law”, the seemingly stable relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP. The Great Recession was stunningly large in terms of the skyrocketing unemployment rate given that initial estimates for real GDP were bad but not as catastrophic. This was more […]
S&P 500 Simply Following Its ‘Stimulus’
As corporate profits have decelerated over the last year the S&P 500 was left with little more than the monetary base, which had been ramped like crazy by post-2008 monetary policy. Then money supply began to sag and the bulls were in trouble, until… money supply got a new boost lately. Where did that come […]
Crude Extends Losses As US Oil Rig Count Rises For First Time In 3 Months
For the first time since mid-December, the US oil rig count increased (by 1 to 387) tracking a lagged crude price perfectly. The total rig count dropped to a fresh record low (-4 to 476). The early weakness in WTI Crude is extending on this news… First rise in 12 weeks… But the total rig count tumbled […]
Silver Eagle Sales To Jump 25% Due To Deteriorating Market Conditions
Silver Eagle sales will likely jump by 25% in the first quarter due to deteriorating market conditions. During the first three months last year the U.S. Mint sold 12 million Silver Eagles. Already, sales of Silver Eagles have reached 13 million. There are two weeks remaining in March and the U.S. Mint will likely sell […]
E Question And Answer Period
Her action was as certain as it was swift. Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen suddenly ratcheted down interest rate expectations from four-quarter point rises to only one in 2016. And that one rate rise may not come until December. Foreign exchange traders all share one unique characteristic. You have to SHOW THEM THE MONEY. No […]
Inventory To Sales Ratios Spell Trouble Three Ways
In light of the recent and unexpected decline in retail sales, let’s put a spotlight on the equally unexpected buildup in the inventory-to-sales ratio, three different ways. Wholesalers Inventories-to-Sales Ratio Retailers Inventories-to-Sales Ratio Total Business Inventories-to-Sales Ratio One way or another these inventory buildups will be worked off. Sales must improve Production must decline Some […]
Republic Services – Chart Of The Day
The Chart of the Day belongs to Republic Services (NYSE:RSG). I found the solid waste stock by using Barchart to sort today’s All Time High list first for the highest technical buy signals then again for the most new highs in the last month. Next I review the chart using the Flipchart feature. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on […]
Leveraging Our Play On TIPS
For those that follow Treasury bond fluctuations closely, it’s been hard not to notice the persistent under performance in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) versus nominal coupon bonds over the last several years. It’s no surprise that inflation has been running below expectations for a long time, despite a steadily falling unemployment rate and a […]
