Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Unemployment Rate Doesn’t Fit JOLTS, Either
The latest JOLTS update finds total hires in January down by a rather large 372k, leaving the monthly seasonally-adjusted rate at still 5 million. Given that the estimated hires rate increased unusually in December, it seems as if January was the statistical catchup or seasonal give-back. That leaves intact the same sideways pattern that first […]
Greenback Bloodbath Continues After FOMC Meeting
On Wednesday, US data release showed a 0.3% rise in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for the month of February compared to January’s figures, while the expectation was for a 0.2% hike. The headline CPI came in as expected at -0.2%. Another data release from the same day showed a housing starts figure better than […]
Consumer Confidence Tumbles To 5-Month Lows As “Hope” Fades
But, but, but – low gas prices, high stock prices… everything is awesome. It appears not even the average joe American consumer is fooled by the latest manufactured rally in stock prices as UMich confidence tumbles to 5-month lows (90 vs 92.2 exp) with future expectations “hope” perfectly anti-correlated with the surge in stocks… On the […]
Peak Dollar?
Axel Merk, President & CIO, Merk Investments LLC, pinged me on March 16 with his thoughts regarding “Peak Dollar“. He is not referring to the number of dollars, but rather, the intermediate-term value of the dollar compared to other currencies. Merk’s comments are online at “Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar?“. Let’s take a look. In guest post format, […]
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: February 2016 Preview
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to tick higher in the February update that’s scheduled for Monday (Mar. 21), based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection for -0.08 reflects a slight improvement over the previous month, which indicates US economic activity […]
Thoughts On Conspiracy Theories Of The Dollar’s Losses
In our work, we have argued that the dollar is having its third significant rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first rally was associated with Reagan though it began under Carter and followed 100 bp hike by a new Federal Reserve Chairman (Volcker). On a real broad trade-weighted basis, the dollar appreciated by more than 50% over the seven […]
Dollar Loses Ground
We’ve seen a change in the tone to FX markets this week, with the dollar index moving to new lows for the year, and is now down a cumulative 5% since the start (calculation helped by close at 100.0!). Remember, once again, many started the year with a bullish dollar view, based on the Fed continuing its […]
US Money Supply And Debt – Early Warning Signs Remain Operative
Still Slowing Down Year-end distortions have begun to slowly come out of the data, and while broad true US money supply growth remains fairly brisk, it has begun to slow again relative to January’s y/y growth rate, to 7.8% from 8.32%. So far it remains in the sideways channel (indicated by the blue lines below) […]
Why Currency Traders Are So Confused
This morning the WSJ leads with an article that summarizes the prevailing market confusion at the moment, namely that global currencies are soaring, “defying central bankers” despite a flurry of easing around the globe in the past month, all of which have been undone by one Fed dot plot which cut the number of rate hikes forecast […]
