Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
When Doves Cry: Imprudently Cautious
If there was one word Yellen emphasized yesterday it was caution. The dot plot reflected that as well. Can one ask if the Fed is being too cautious? Yellen acknowledged that the Fed’s assessment of the US economy had not changed much from December. There is little reason it should. However, it is difficult to reconcile that with the substantial change in […]
GBP/USD Trading Higher As BoE Unanimously Keeps Rates Unchanged
The British Pound traded higher versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written) after today’s BoE rate decision saw interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, as was expected by economists. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously 9-0 to maintain the Bank rate at 0.50%, as in the previous meeting. The MPC also voted […]
March 2016 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Also Returns To Expansion
The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey returned to expansion. Key elements improved. Both manufacturing surveys released so far for this month are in expansion. This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is sentiment based. The Philly Fed historically is one of the more negative of all the Fed manufacturing surveys but […]
82.8% Expect Real Incomes Will Decline In 2016
Souring Attitudes Since December, the Fed has gone from pricing in four hikes to two. But that’s not the only thing that has changed. Consumer views regarding earnings expectations are down. So are their views about the stock market. Most importantly, consumers are more worried about the jobs than they were in December. This is […]
3 Stocks & ETFs For Green Returns On St. Patrick’s Day
St. Patrick’s Day is here and investors around the world are keen on trying their Irish luck for green returns. This will lead to an upsurge in investments, which act as catalysts to the stocks usually pushing them higher. Will it be possible this year when volatility and uncertainty are ruling the market? The answer […]
Our Economic Growth System Is Reaching Limits In A Strange Way
Economic growth never seems to be as high as those making forecasts would like it to be. This is a record of recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund: Figure 1. World GDP Forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. Figure 2 shows world economic growth on a different basis–a basis that appears to me […]
Valeant Update For Today
Down another 10%, and – – incredibly – – only five dollars above where it was in 1972! (I’m serious).
Chart Of The Day: The Perfect Correlation – Stock Buybacks And The S&P 500 Since 2010
Stock buybacks have been propping up the S&P 500!
Thursday Humor? Bank Of Japan Asks Banks ‘What’ Caused USD/JPY Spike
According to sources, Reuters reports that The Bank of Japan is asking market-participants about the cause of this morning’s sudden 150 pip vertical rip in USD/JPY. Hhmmm, we wonder? Given BoJ’s “coincident” intervention in mid-Feb (marking the market bottom), we wonder who this mysterious knife-catcher is? This happened in Mid-Fed: for the first time since 2011 the BOJ intervened directly in […]
Oil’s Ups And Downs
The price of oil rose sharply last week to nearly $40 a barrel, presumably based on two pieces of information: falling rig counts in the United States and the announcement that major international oil exporters Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela would freeze oil production if other oil producing countries agreed to the same. The rally seemed genuine […]
