Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
US Business Cycle Risk Report – 17 March 2016
Recent economic reports suggest that the US economy will continue to grow at a modest pace. Although macro risk has increased in recent months, the probability is low that a recession started last month and the near-term outlook suggests that the economy will continue to sidestep a new downturn, based on current data. The bigger […]
Great Graphic: Dollar Index Retracement, Too Soon To Say Top Is In
The cry that the dollar has peaked is gaining ground. We are not convinced. The macro-fundamental case remains intact. Divergence between the US and other high income countries continues, even if at a more gradual pace than the Federal Reserve expected a few months ago. This Great Graphic of the Dollar Index, created on Bloomberg, shows that shows […]
DAX Bullish On Draghi Bazooka
The year of 2016 has not been kind to German stocks as evidenced by the weak performance from the DAX during the first quarter. Since the beginning of the year, the DAX 30 index has fallen -7.57%, and the one-year performance has been notably worse. Recent monetary policy actions might benefit the benchmark equity index […]
E ‘Nine Words’ Caused The Fed To Tamp Down Rate Expectations
The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged as expected. The Fed also projected two quarter point rate hikes — fewer than what had previously been envisioned. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has cited the Fed’s data dependency — usually concerning inflation and unemployment figures. On Wednesday she introduced nine words that could prompt the […]
UK Chancellor Delivers 8th Budget
The UK’s finance minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, made his 8th budget presentation in parliament on Wednesday. He upset some Eurosceptic members of his own party by repeating a warning from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that the UK would be “safer, stronger and more secure” if it remains in the EU. The […]
AUD/USD Shrugs Off Unimpressive Jobs Data
The Australian jobs market gained only 300 jobs in February, significantly worse than 11.6K expected and not covering for a revised loss of 7.4K jobs in January. The unemployment rate surprisingly dropped from 6% to 5.8%, but that came on the back of a drop in the participation rate from 65.2% to 64.9%. AUD/USD did react with […]
Oil Won’t Stage A Serious Rebound Until This Happens
Oil prices have shown signs of life over the past few weeks, as production declines in the U.S. raise expectations that the market is starting to adjust. As a result, Brent crude recently surpassed $40 per barrel for the first time in months. A growling list of companies are capitulating, announcing production cuts for 2016. Continental Resources, […]
Retirement Planning And Risk Management
Retirement planning is hard work and requires discipline and care. Few of us can rely on luck or the proverbial leprechaun’s pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, Assessing uncertainty on an ongoing basis is as important as identifying goals. Sadly, I’m not convinced that the topic of risk management is being discussed as […]
Dollar Drop Extends Post-Fed, Stocks, Bonds And Commodities Rally
The Federal Reserve’s cautiousness has sent the dollar reeling. The Fed’s backtracking to two hikes this year from four is still met with skepticism by the market. It previously had a June hike nearly discounted but has not pushed that out until September. With a backdrop of BOJ, and ECB and PBOC easing policy, […]
Oil Market Analysis – EIA Weekly Summary Report
Dollar weakness pushed all commodities higher on Wednesday afternoon causing shorts to be squeezed in the oil market. I am sure Bears are surprised where Oil is now given the negative sentiment on Tuesday, we are trading in a range between $35.96 and $39.64 the last nine days. If there is any weakness if the […]
