Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Wholesale Trade Inventories Decline; Revisions Announced; First Quarter GDP Troubles Brewing
According to the Census Department’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Report, inventories declined 0.2% in January. This is a negative for first-quarter GDP estimates. However, the Census Department issued an “Intention to Revise” notice so the whole report and back reports are suspect. Intention to Revise Monthly Wholesale sales, inventories, and inventories/sales ratios will be revised based on the results […]
These 4 Stable Inflation-Protected Stocks Are Likely To Be Around In 50 Years
Investors have a lot to gain by investing in inflation-protected stocks with a long time horizon. “The single greatest edge an investor can have is a long-term orientation.” – Seth Klarman A long-term orientation minimizes transaction costs and capital gains tax. Deferred capital gains tax can compound over time, leading to a ‘Buffett Loan’ of deferred […]
EUR Into ECB: Markets More Vulnerable To A ‘Slightly Hawkish’ Tilt
The ECB meeting is just around the corner (see full preview). Here is the view from Nordea: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: We do not expect any changes to the ECB monetary policy when the Governing Council meets on 9 March. Although the headline inflation was already at the target in February at 2.0%, the […]
Charting The Maddening Market Messages
Why are we getting such diverging and maddening market messages from the equity and bond markets? Which one is right? Are either right? MARKET PERCEPTIONS Let’s consider the perceptions of each of these markets: EQUITY MARKET The Equity Markets perceives Trumponomic Policy SUCCESS ahead and are aggressively pricing it in! The level of excitement has now reached the levels […]
CIA, WikiLeaks & Iwatch
In this new world of technology and its attendant problems of the hacking of gadgets and products, Apple’s iWatch now takes on a whole new meaning after WikiLeaks published material yesterday that is purported to be CIA documents and files related to U.S. intelligence cyber and spying activities. Apple (AAPL) is nearing a convergence of a couple […]
Canada’s Market Data Problem
Canada’s equities markets are just like any other market. They are made up of buyers and sellers that exchange goods – in this case, securities. Information is what allows buyers and sellers to make decisions in the market. However, if that information is inaccurate or incomplete, it can impact the health of the market. INFORMATION […]
Central Banks Have Completely Destroyed Financial Markets
Video Length: 00:11:19 It is funny when strategists come on and talk about market targets as if asset prices would be anywhere near these levels without Central Banks and their artificial hand in the markets. The tail risk is beyond any finance models ever constructed right now, literally every stock in the world could go […]
Why Commodities Could Be On The Verge Of A Massive Surge
After finishing 2016 up 25 percent, commodities are getting another boost from bullish investors. Investment bank Citigroup forecasts commodity prices will increase this year on strengthening demand in China and mounting inflation inspired by President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies. Commodity assets under management globally stood at $391 billion in January, up 50 percent from […]
Chart Of The Day: “Bear” This In Mind If You’re Short
Have you put on your flatteners? That’s a question some folks are asking these days as the odds of a March hike and -dare I speculate – an actual rate hike cycle increase. Now it’s exceedingly possible that you might not be old enough to remember what policy normalization looks like… …but on the off chance you do, […]
Oil Tanks To $51 Handle – One-Month Lows
It seems ever-exuberant energy traders are finally waking up to the reality that the global rebalance is not happening. A record glut of crude and surging production has sent WTI back to a $51 handle this morning (one-month lows) and has weighed on gasoline prices… WTI has broken below its 100-day moving average as the machines ran overnight […]
