Category Archive: Finance
In Search Of The Mythical Vol. Spike
Where next for vol.? Nowhere. Unless it’s lower. Of course. That’s how things work. That’s how things have to work. That’s how things must work. Because as Citi recently put it, “trades and strategies which explicitly or implicitly rely on the low-vol environment continuing are becoming more and more ubiquitous.” That ubiquity begets feedback loops – i.e. self-feeding dynamics […]
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular And Premium Down Three Cents
It’s time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium were down three cents each from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.23 and Santa Barbara, CA is the most expensive city, averaging $3.31. Oklahoma […]
Three Years Ago QE, Last Year It Was China, Now It’s Taxes
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported last week that the official manufacturing PMI for that country rose from 51.6 in October to 51.8 in November. Since “analysts” were expecting 51.4 (Reuters poll of Economists) it was taken as a positive sign. The same was largely true for the official non-manufacturing PMI, rising like its counterpart […]
The Dollar Index Has Risen. Demand Is Still High
Yesterday, the US dollar strengthened against the majors. The dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session in the positive zone (+0.23%). It should be recalled that at the weekend the US Senate approved a draft bill on tax reform. Demand for the American currency remains at a high level. A number of important statistical data […]
AUD/USD Advances Nicely On RBA Optimism, Retail Sales
The Reserve Bank of Australia is not that worried about inflation. In their last rate decision for the year and before they take a two-month break, Philip Lowe & Co. decided to drop the reference for inflation staying low for some time. They now see inflation as “picking up gradually”. This change of wording is […]
Retailer Seasonality: 2017 Is A Different Year
I have been harping on retail as a contrary investment and trade for the past month or so. A reader prompted me to consider whether a seasonal element helps explain the current run-up that has turned into a bona fide breakout for the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). Turns out the answer is “not really.” XRT […]
Dividends By The Numbers For November 2017
We’re going to stick with just the facts in our roundup of this past month’s market dividend news! The following chart shows the ongoing evolution of either dividend increase announcements or dividend cut announcements from January 2004 through November 2017. Let’s get to the numbers! In November 2017… 3,518 U.S. companies declared dividends, up from […]
Sensex Trades In Red; Metal Stocks Witness Selling
After opening the day in a red note, the Indian share markets have continued the downward spiral and are currently trading in the negative territory. All sectoral indices are trading negative, with stocks in the metal sector and the power sector witnessing maximum selling pressure. The BSE Sensex is trading down 165 points (down 0.5%) and the NSE Nifty is trading down 48 points (down […]
Asset Prices And Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey
Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey is the title of an excellent review authored by two leading experts, Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose, that is required reading for anyone who wants to glean the implications of asset price movements for what’s going to happen in the real economy. From the conclusion: Challenges to theoretical […]
E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Dec. 5
A notable change in market behavior has been evidenced for two weeks, in a clearer way than the ongoing rotational action that preceded for months. Last week we saw a couple days during which the Senior Indexes were up a lot; or at least firmed substantially, while FANG and other presumed leaders more of a […]
