Category Archive: Finance
Bull Trap In S&P?
The week started with some profit taking which extended through to today. The only index to be negatively impacted by this was the S&P. Whether today’s selling, which undercut former channel resistance to leave a ‘bull trap’, turns into anything significant to worry about remains to be seen. Recent trading volume has favoured buyers, with On-Balance-Volume […]
Agriculture Markets Report – Wednesday, Oct. 25
A review of the day’s trading in the agriculture markets. Video Length: 00:15:50
EC Beware Of Extremist Bond Calls
I’ve spent way too much of my career cautioning investors about extremist positions. No, there wasn’t a bond bubble in 2010. No, the stock market wasn’t a bubble back in 2013. No, the USA wasn’t going bankrupt in 2012. No, QE wasn’t going to cause hyperinflation. You get the point. I try to be objective and pragmatic and a […]
S&P 500: Consolidation Is Likely Near-Term
SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 10/25/17 at 2557.15=breakeven; long SPX 10/16/17 at 2557.64. Monitoring purposes Gold: Covered short GDX at 23.23 on 10/20/17 =gain 2.56%; Short GDX on 10/13/17 at 23.84. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. (Click on image to enlarge On Monday the Tick closed at -347 and the TRIN at 1.56 which is […]
The ECB Will Likely Be Hawkish On Thursday
ECB’s Big Decision The chart below shows the aggregate assets the 4 major central banks from developed market economies have been acquiring over the past 12 years. As you can see, the asset buying has slowed and accelerated in the past few years, but the aggregate share of GDP has almost never stopped going up. […]
Is The Bubble Economy Set To Burst?
Central banks continue to focus on consumption inflation, not asset inflation, in their decisions. Their attitude has supported one bubble after another. These bubbles have led to rising inequality and made mass consumer inflation less likely. Since the 2008 financial crisis, asset inflation has fully recovered, and then some. The US household net worth is […]
Warmer Long-Range Forecasts Pull Natural Gas Prices Lower
Prompt month November natural gas prices fell a bit less than 2% today as warmer long-range forecasts decreased heating demand expectations. This did not come as a surprise to our subscribers, as all week we had been watching the potential that long-range forecasts would turn warmer. On Monday we published our Note on the Day explaining that […]
New Home Sales Better In September, But Which One?
New home sales rose almost 20% in September 2017 from August 2017. In just the one month, the pace of sales surged from a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 561k to 667k. The latter monthly estimate was the highest since 2007, therefore much is being made of that comparison. As usual, it’s a false one. Given […]
Is It Time To Start Panicking?
There’s an old Wall Street adage that says: “Don’t panic until the last bear throws in the towel.” Folks, start panicking. David Einhorn became a billionaire hedge fund manager by buying undervalued stocks and successfully shorting overvalued ones. He’s the quintessential “value guy.” He’s been out of step with this market rally for a long […]
Teva: Is Another Dividend Cut In The Cards?
Teva’s (TEVA) is facing pricing pressure in its core generics business, while the company is laden with debt. After disappointing Q2 results in which the company’s gross margins declined from 57% to 50%, Teva cut its dividend 75% to 8.5 cents: Generic drugmaker Teva Pharmaceutical Industries took a pounding from investors after it slashed its […]
