Category Archive: Finance
The “Real” Goods On The September Durable Goods Data
Earlier today the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on the latest Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let’s now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts below the gray line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly […]
India Stock Index Nifty 50 And INDY: Price Performance And Divergence
As forecasted by Investinghaven, India’s stock market had a stellar performance in 2017. India’s NIFTY 50, representing 50 of India’s large capitalization started 2017 at 8000 to recently cross above the 10000 level. INDY, iShares’ India 50 ETF tracking the performance of NIFTY 50 is up more than 30% for the year. In our article today, we will cover […]
September 2017 Philly Fed Coincident Index Year-Over-Year Rate Of Growth Slows
The year-over-year rate of growth relative to the previous month of the US Coincident Index was down. A comparison of this US Coincident Index to other coincident indices follows. Analyst Opinion of the Current Status of the Coincident Indicators The reality is that most of the economic indicators have moderate to significant backward revision – and this […]
E The Tipping Point
In his book “The Tipping Point” Malcolm Gladwell defines a tipping point as “the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point”. Given the recent upward acceleration of the price of the DJIA there appears to be a growing realization among market participants that equities are more favorable investments than bonds. Whether consciously or […]
Dollar Index Tests Neckline Of Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern
The US Dollar Index ( DXY) has been able to trace-out a big inverted H&S pattern, but just hours ago, failed at the pattern’s neckline. While this could set-up a more precise breakout, it could also set the stage for a dip back towards the right shoulder’s potential base in the 92.5/75 region. The same pattern ( H&S ) is also visible […]
WTI Jumps Despite Surprise Inventory Build, Production Rebound
Following last night’s (API-reported) big product draws (and crude build), WTI slid lower (RBOB higher) into this morning’s DOE data, but both WTI/RBOB prices jumped after the report showed major product draws (and a Cushing destocking). WTI rallied despite a big surprise build (+856k vs -3mm exp) and a major rebound in production after Hurricane Nate. API […]
Financial Follies
Leaning again on my short positions, here are three finance-related ones from my portfolio I wanted to share:
Don’t Put All Of Your Eggs In The ‘Tax Cuts Are Coming’ Basket
It does not matter what you call it or how you explain it. The Trump trade. A tax reform rally. Heck, you can attribute the longest uptrend in history without a 3% pullback to global quantitative easing (QE). It makes very little difference. Stocks have been stupendous. Does a record number of trading days without […]
HH Do ETFs Distort Earnings Announcements?
From one perspective the move from active, human portfolio decision making to passive, computer-driven investment management mirrors societal trend shifts to various degrees. The impact automated intelligence has on a job function, for instance, transforms the human from a leader to a follower to various degrees. In a human / computer artificial intelligence integration project, computers often frame […]
Four-Day Losing Streak Breaks Aussie Down To Three-Month Lows
AUD/USD Daily Chart Technical Outlook: Aussie broke below confluence slope support at ~7778 last night on the heels of a lackluster print on 3Q CPI. The decline is now targeting a critical support confluence highlighted in yesterday’s weekly technical perspective at 7630/65. A break below this mark risks substantial losses for the pair with such a scenario eyeing the lower median-line […]
