Category Archive: Finance
Canadian Dollar Edgy On NAFTA Fears
Talking Points: USD/CAD likely to remain under the spell of NAFTA talks. A firm oil complex is underpinning the Loonie. USD bond yields remain elevated. Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Neutral We remain neutral on the Canadian dollar although we would turn bearish on CAD if the ongoing NAFTA discussions take a turn for the worse. The two drivers for the Canadian dollar, […]
Really Bad Ideas, Part 5: The Fed Should Have – And Defend – An Inflation Target
Central banks in general and the Fed in particular are struggling to understand a world in which they’ve thrown everything they have at the economy without generating “beneficial” inflation. Their confusion can be traced back to some profoundly false assumptions. Here’s a good overview of the current debate: Fed ‘should defend’ inflation target or risk […]
E Market Briefing For Monday, Oct. 16
Crippling concerns proliferate but have not crushed this market’s rather tenacious ability to maintain its reliance in the face of uncertainty. One real irony is that despite the geopolitical concerns and even peaking ‘confidence’ among consumers and investors, you don’t see equivalent economic gains. The sanctions that exist could be said almost lesser toward Iran, […]
They That Sow The Wind, Shall Reap The Whirlwind
This week the Dow Jones made two new all-time highs, the 64th and 65th of the past year. And as we’ve come to expect in the current advance, there’s no indication of a market correction, however tiny that may be, to be seen on the horizon in the Dow Jones’ BEV chart below. The Dow […]
Only Minor Top Ahead
We are approaching the full count from the 2500 re-accumulation level, but it is likely that we will get there through a series of fits and starts and not directly. This will be dictated by the very nature of the market itself that requires that projection targets be reached in a structured manner which is […]
Forex Strength And Comparison Week 42 / 2017
In the Currency Strength table, the AUD was the strongest currency while the CHF was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the AUD gaining 5 points, the GBP gaining 4 points, the NZD gaining 3 points, the USD and CHF losing 4 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with […]
Who’s Ready For The Super-Tremendous ‘Melt-Up’ And The Phenomenal ‘Blowoff’?
At this point, I’m not really sure what counts as a “blowoff” top. That term has been bandied about recently, and there are plenty of folks who will tell you they can define it, but that’s silly. It’s a Trump-ish superlative like “tremendous,” or “phenomenal,” or “big league.” Same goes for “melt-up.” What is a “melt-up,” […]
US Dollar & Yields Pulls Back; EUR/USD Forms Potential Head & Shoulders Pattern
The US dollar pulled back last week after having registered 4 straight weeks of gains, amid the first weekly fall in US Treasury yields in over a month. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlighted the 3rd straight weekly increase in the (yen) carry trade, and another record in euro futures positioning. Meanwhile, a […]
Downside Risks For MLPs
The Shale Revolution is a powerful recent example of why America’s system of capitalism is so enduring. We’re not just leaders in shale oil and gas, the U.S. is pretty much the only game in town. One day it will probably be the basis for college courses across the country to illustrate the power of […]
Australian Dollar Should Hold Up As Greenback Loses Some Shine
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral The Australian Dollar had plentiful supportive news last week Inflation expectations, consumer spending and an official financial review all underlined the bull case It may not get much more this week, but should still hold up The Australian Dollar is still being driven largely by interest-rate differentials between its home country and those […]
