Category Archive: Finance
Back To The Future: A US Dollar Bear Market?
By Knowledge Leaders Capital This slide package is our Knowledge Leaders Strategy mid-quarter update and can be downloaded at the link below. The discussion is broken into three sections: SECTION 1: History does not support the view that the USD is propped up by a monetary tightening cycle. The US Dollar’s moves are more fundamentally based on […]
The Question Every Goldman Client Is Asking – ‘Is An Equity Correction Imminent?’
You’re a Goldman client. Ok, no you’re not. But let’s pretend. What is it you’re thinking about these days? Well as it turns out, you’re thinking the same thing everyone else is thinking (with the possible exception of Target managers-turned hedge fund titans buying XIV on dips with other people’s money). Namely, you’re thinking this: […]
Bulls Get Benefit Of Doubt, But…
It’s a new week, so let’s start things off right with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where things stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what “should” be happening in the market in order to stay in line […]
USD/CAD Forecast Sep. 11-15
Dollar/CAD had a dramatic week, crashing on another hawkish hike from the BOC. Can it break under 1.20? Manufacturing sales stand out this week. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The BOC did it again. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates, and that was not fully priced in. They also […]
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Yield At 2.06%, Lowest Levels Since November
Note: We’ve updated this commentary with data through Friday’s market close. Let’s take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. On Friday, the yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.06% and the 30-year bond closed at 2.67%, some of the lowest levels since November of 2016. Here is a table […]
Weekly Economic & Political Timeline – Sunday, Sept. 10
This week will have a relatively full news agenda, including some items of key U.S. data. The agenda will be dominated by monthly policy commentaries and bid rates from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. Therefore, volatility this week should be at a similar level to last week, helped by the fact […]
The Big Unwinding
Below is $USDJPY weekly, with $GOLD:$USD in the background. I am using $USD as the denominator for consistency. Comments: 1. $USDJPY and $GOLD:$USD are inversely correlated 2. The long super cycle for $USDJPY is 180 months (or 15 years) low to low, and the half cycle harmonic is 90 months, low to low. 3. The […]
Weekly Forecast: EUR/USD Two Year Highs The Extension Of Trend?
US Dollar Forecast: Dollar Drop Crosses 12%: Can Inflation Turn the Tide Ahead of the Fed? The U.S. Dollar has been pulverized by a plethora of factors. But after a rise in July inflation, will another bump help to buck the bearish trend? Euro Forecast: EUR/USD to Stay Bid Ahead of FOMC as ECB Unveils Post-QE Game Plan EUR/USD remains […]
How To Ride 33-Month High Euro With ETFs
The euro has been on a tear lately, being at a 33-month high against the greenback. Heightened speculation over the European Central Bank’s (ECB) possible announcement of the QE wind down as soon as in October was behind this strength (read: ECB to Wind Up QE Soon? ETFs in Focus). The ECB held interest rates steady […]
EUR/USD Closes Higher On Bull Pressure But With Caution
EUR/USD: With the pair seen closing higher on Tuesday, more recovery is envisaged. Resistance comes in at 1.2100 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.2150 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.2200 level where a break will expose the 1.2250 level. Its daily RSI is bullish […]
