Category Archive: Finance
Gold Rolls Higher On Casters Midst Natural Disasters
Given a world rife these days with natural disasters, from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, to Mexico’s monstrous quake and the madman of the NorK, Gold continues to roll higher, now having recorded “higher highs” in seven of the past eight weeks. High times indeed, for as in the above panel we see that Gold is […]
GDPNow Vs. Nowcast: When Will Hurricane Adjustments Take Place?
On Friday, GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast both posted third-quarter GDP estimates. GDPNow stands at 3.0%. The Nowcast is at 2.1%. Inquiring minds may be wondering what Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will do to their models. First, let’s review the latest forecasts. GDPNow Forecast: 3.0 Percent — September 8, 2017 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally […]
GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 11-15
GBP/USD had a tense week amid tense Brexit negotiations but came out on top. The upcoming week features top-tier inflation and jobs indicators, as well as the BOE decision. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. The pound enjoyed the talk about a soft Brexit, but perhaps more importantly, a weak US […]
History Shows, Buy QQQ And Sell KRE On Monday
For the Modern Family, Friday was not much more than a continuation of the consolidation that had been going on since Tuesday. There were some notable exceptions like IYT which had a strong day on Friday, closed of the day and the high of the week and over its 50-DMA. Acually, a strong Friday is […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Down
The latest release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 141.8, down from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.69%, down from 4.36% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.9, also down from the previous week. “Finding […]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Have The Odds Improved For A Market-Friendly Policy Agenda?
We have a normal data calendar. Central to stock market prospects is the resolution of several key policy issues. The possible outcomes have a wide range of market impacts, from fear to a major boost in corporate earnings. The debt limit/Harvey aid deal between President Trump and Democrats was a surprise to most. Still digesting […]
Above The 40 – Lingering Tensions For The Stock Market
AT40 = 44.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 (up 4.9%)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The market has made no progress since my last Above the 40 post which covered the volatility and fizzle from Tuesday, September 5th. Tensions remain […]
Millennials Head One-Third Of All Poverty-Stricken U.S. Households (The Rest Live With Mom)
Millennials just can’t catch a break. Despite being the most educated generation ever to walk the face of the planet, at least according to their tuition bills paid by mom and dad, a staggering number of them now head households living below the poverty line…and that excludes the ones forced to live at home with […]
Why So Much Inventory?
Liquidity, and more so liquidity preferences are vastly misunderstood for a whole host of reasons. A lot of it has to do with the dominant strains of economics battling each other (saltwater vs. freshwater) over which statistical model fails less frequently. In shifting to mathematics and statistics, something great has been lost. Economists don’t understand […]
EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 11-15
EUR/USD was not convinced by Draghi’s complaints about the exchange rate and reached new highs. Can it continue even higher? A mix of inflation, industrial output, and trade balance numbers awaits us. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The ECB did not reach a decision about […]
