Category Archive: Finance
GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%
The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are in the same ballpark this week. The GDPNow estimate is 3.4%. The Nowcast estimate is 1.9%. GDPNow Forecast: 3.4 Percent — August 25, 2017 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is […]
Small Risk, Big Return: The Safest Bet In Commodities Today
Over the past few months, I talked about several agricultural investments: agribusiness, sugar, cotton, cocoa, etc. Investors hate the basic, fundamental stuff right now. They want Uber and Google, not cotton and wheat. They want Apple, not apples. Food is boring. Now that sentiment has hit an unusual extreme. The mood is so ugly that a SentimenTrader.com indicator wants […]
The Small Caps
There are times I have so many ideas to share, I can barely contain myself. There are other times – – like this entire week – – when I find the market wholly uninteresting and have more trouble providing fodder. But the show must go on, so I offer you this chart of the ETF […]
GameStop Slips After Earnings Miss Despite Assurances For ‘Better’ Second Half
Shares of GameStop (GME) plunged after the video game retailer reported second quarter results, with adjusted earnings for the quarter falling short of consensus estimates. The company also noted a decline in U.S. comparable store sales in the quarter as well as a dip in new software sales and pre-owned sales. WHAT’S NEW: After the […]
Durable Goods In July; Rinse, Repeat
The Census Bureau reported today updated estimates for Durable Goods in July 2017. Quite frankly, nothing has changed so minimal commentary is all that is required. The aircraft anomaly from last month faded, leaving total new orders of $229.2 billion (seasonally-adjusted). That is less than in May before the Boeing surge, and less even than […]
Recapping Yellen’s Comments At Jackson Hole And Looking Past Labor Day
Chris Temple joins me today to recap Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s comments from Jackson Hole. She did not provide any update on forward guidance for the Fed but did defend the central banks policy since the financial crisis. Since nothing has changed in this respect we then look to past labor day and the potential […]
5 Quality ETFs And Stocks For Outperformance
The stock market has been exhibiting volatility in the past few weeks. While geopolitical tensions, renewed fears over the implementation of President Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda, an uncertain Fed policy and high stock valuations are weighing on the stocks, strong corporate earnings, and improving health of economies around the world act as tailwinds. This is […]
Durable Goods New Orders Slows In July 2017?
The headlines say the durable goods new orders declined. However, the unadjusted three month rolling average improved. Analyst Opinion of the Durable Goods Situation Our analysis is more postitive than the headlines as we see improvement this month. Civilian aircraft were the main headwind this month. If one removes aircraft – this is a stronger […]
Durable Goods Orders Decline 6.8% Led By Aircraft
Huge surges and declines in aircraft orders have made for extremely volatile durable goods orders lately. Last month aircraft orders surged 227 percent, this month aircraft orders plunged 82 percent. Last month aircraft orders surged 227 percent, this month aircraft orders plunged 82 percent. Amidst this volatility, the Econoday consensus estimate of -5.8% was reasonably close to […]
Large Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey reported a 6.1% decline in bullish investor sentiment to 28.1%. The bullish sentiment level is now near one standard deviation below the long term average. Nearly all of the decline in the bullish sentiment showed up in the bearish number which increased 5.5%. The bull/bear spread is now -10.4 percentage points. […]
