Category Archive: Finance
BLS Reports Net Negative Inflation For 5 Months: Anyone Believe That?
Today the BLS reported the CPI was flat. The Econoday consensus was for a 0.1% rise. Over the last five months, the CPI is -0.1%. Over the last four months, the CPI is -0.2%. In what is one of the very weakest 4-month stretch in 60 years of records, core consumer prices could manage only a 0.1 percent increase in June. […]
Revisiting Saudi Arabia
In May of last year I was attempting to figure out if there was an asymmetric play to be had in the land of sand and black gloop. There were a lot of moving pieces to deal with. I think it’s worth revisiting but first it’s worth reviewing what I thought just over a year […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Rose 0.4% In June
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
JPMorgan Warns S&P Faces Large “Negative Gamma”, Could Exaggerate Any Drop Next Week
Earlier in the week we noted the ‘odd’ surge in downside protection demand even as tech stocks were soaring, and now JPMorgan is noting the S&P has shifted to a large ‘negative gamma’ underhang which “could boost volatility if we were to sell off.” As Bloomberg notes, options markets suggest a lack of confidence in the rally. Traders are piling into […]
Games Software/Hardware Over $150B In 2017, $200B By 2021, Record $2.8B Invested
Games software/hardware combined are set to drive more than $150 billion revenue for the first time ever in 2017, with software taking around three-quarters and hardware around one-quarter of the total (Note: this is games software/hardware combined – non-hardware revenues could deliver over $110 billion globally this year). With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% […]
Adjusting Debt Levels Based On Interest Rates
Photo Source The United States and much of the world has been in a long period of low interest rates. But the Federal Reserve, the independent body that sets base rate targets for the financial markets, has been slowly raising interest rates since 2015. Over the last 6 months, the interest rate has climbed twice, […]
3 ETFs Loaded With Positive ESP Stocks
The second-quarter earnings season is expected to be strong, with the S&P 500 index anticipated to see earnings growth of 5.6% and revenue growth of 4.5%, per the latest Earnings Trends. The stock market is also at record levels. However, the ongoing turmoil in Washington, geopolitical risks, Fed-related uncertainty, and lofty valuation could bring some […]
IT Security Peers Retreat After CyberArk Warning
The shares of the number of IT security stocks are declining after one of the names in the sector, CyberArk (CYBR), issued a negative pre-announcement last night. Analysts had mixed views on CyberArk following its results, as some downgraded the shares while other defended the stock. PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT: CyberArk lowered its revenue view for Q2 to […]
A Long-Term Look At Inflation – Friday, July 14
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 1.63%. It is substantially below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and also below its 10-year moving average, now at 1.75%. For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based […]
Is The Market All-Knowing?
“The tape tells all” is a Wall Street bromide we’re all familiar with. It neatly summarizes the belief that the major averages discount everything pertaining to the business outlook. It’s also a basic tenet of Dow Theory. Writing a century ago, Richard Wyckoff was one of the very first market pundits to put this belief […]
