Category Archive: Finance
USD/JPY And AUD/USD Forecast – Tuesday, July 11
USD/JPY The US dollar rallied a bit during the day on Monday but continues to find resistance just above. The 115 level is a massive barrier, so I think between here and there you are going to see a lot of pushback. If we can break above the 115 level on a daily close, the […]
Ain’t No Cure For The Summertime Blues
Since Election Day, the focus in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market has been essentially domestic-driven. In other words, market participants have been setting their sights on potential fiscal policy developments and, of course, the latest actions from the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, as the calendar turned to summer, investors were greeted with a new twist for Treasuries—more-hawkish-than-expected rhetoric coming from […]
EC A New (And Longer) Dataset For Modeling The Market Portfolio
The market portfolio, in theory, is a simple concept. Buy and hold everything in market-value weights. But the road from concept to implementation is rocky. Some asset classes are relatively illiquid and therefore difficult to own directly. There’s also debate about how to estimate weights. Minds, in other words, will differ on devising a market […]
AUD/USD Forex Signal – Tuesday, July 11
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as none of the key levels were ever reached. Today’s AUD/USD Signals Risk 0.75%. Trades must be entered between 8am New York time and 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period only. Short Trades Go short following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next […]
‘They Immediately Bought Dollars’: Traders Get Confused, Drive Yen To March Lows
Well, the overnight session was described as “listless” by at least one Asia-based trader as markets are i) laser focused on Yellen’s testimony and ii) anxiously waiting for the Bank of Canada to see if the “hawks take flight”, as it were. “Asian currencies are trading listless ahead of Yellen’s testimony,” Andy Ji, a Singapore-based […]
Bond Selloff Returns As EM Fears Rise; Oil Slides; BOJ Does Not Intervene
U.S. index futures point slightly lower open. Asian shares rose while stocks in Europe fell as energy producers got caught in a downdraft in oil prices and reversed an earlier gain after Goldman unexpectedly warned that WTI could slide below $40 absent “show and awe” from OPEC. The dollar rose, hitting a four-month high against […]
Indian Indices Pare Most Gains, End Marginally Higher
Indian share markets lost some steam towards the end of the day to end today’s session only marginally higher. Losses were largely seen in the telecom sector and realty sector. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 31 points (up 0.1%) and the NSE Nifty closed higher by 15 points (up 0.2%). The BSE Mid Cap index ended the day down by […]
Global Economic Leading Indicators
The latest round of OECD Composite Leading Indicators showed some interesting results country-by-country, but one view we use when looking at these indicators is to take a breadth and diffusion (as well as level) perspective to gauge changes in the global economic pulse. This provides useful context when thinking about global economic cycles, but it is also […]
The Return Of The “Minsky Moment”
“The emergence of money manager capitalism means that the financing of the capital development of the economy has taken a back seat to the quest for short-run total returns.” – Circa 1992. Wall Street has forgotten the great financial crisis. A sense of relief has settled firmly on the legendary asphalt artery between Trinity and […]
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Tuesday July 11
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market was choppy on Monday, as we tried to rally but found it too much in the way of resistance near the $45 level. I think if we can stay below this level, the market is apt to continue to fall towards the 42.50 level. That’s not to […]
