Category Archive: Finance
This May Be “The Scariest Chart” In The World
Were you looking for another reason to be wary of US equities? And by “another reason” I mean in addition to ridiculous multiples, the growing disconnect between stocks and the flattening yield curve, the fact that a handful of names are responsible for a historically disproportionate percentage of the YTD return, the possibility that a sudden spike […]
GBP/USD Forecast June 5-9
GBP/USD reversed directions and gained 70 points. The pair closed at 1.2882. This week’s key events are Services PMI, the parliamentary election and Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. In the UK, manufacturing and construction PMIs continue to point to expansion. Over in the US, the […]
Soaring Debt = Slow Growth = Even More Debt = Systemic Crisis
It’s just common sense: Borrow too much money and the weight of this debt makes it hard to do things that used to be easy. This truism is now (finally!) hitting home, and blame is being apportioned. A couple of recent examples: Over The Last 10 Years The U.S. Economy Has Grown At EXACTLY The […]
Australian Dollar Remains Vulnerable To China Data
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish The Australian Dollar can look to a central bank decision and official GDP data this week But Aussie monetary policy is going nowhere and the growth figures may now be too historic Watch the China data instead A versatile actor on the currency stage, the Australian Dollar plays many different roles. […]
Market Update For June 5, 2017
As expected, the Dow Jones saw two new all-time highs this week (Thursday and Friday). Just how much higher can the stock market go? On a point basis I really don’t know, could be enough to surprise me. But on a practical basis, for only as long as the central banks making this happen can […]
Is The Correction Over?
All trends from monthly to hourly are up with a new break-out to an all-time high last week. It is now obvious that the C-wave was shallow and ended on 4/17, with the low of one of the intermediate cycles bottoming at that time. Since (to my knowledge) the next intermediate cycle low is not […]
Central Banks Now Own A Third Of The Entire $54 Trillion Global Bond Market
Two weeks ago we asked a question: maybe behind all the rhetoric and constant (ab)use of sophisticated terms like “gamma”, “vega”, CTAs, risk-parity, vol-neutral, central bank vol-suppression, (inverse) VIX ETFs and so forth to explain why despite the surging political uncertainty in recent years, and especially since the US election … global equity volatility, both implied and […]
HH Who Will Survive The Retail Reckoning Of 2017?
By Knowledge Wharton Legacy retailers’ ongoing struggle to stay relevant in a landscape increasingly dominated by Amazon and online upstarts has come to a head in the past year. Companies will close thousands of stores this year – and some may not survive at all. While it may seem that retail is headed for an apocalypse dominated […]
Less Than Zero: How The Fed Killed Saving
The other day I was in my local branch of a Too Big To Fail bank where I have a few accounts. One of them is a savings account in which I keep some of my “dry powder” cash stored. It had been a while since I had checked what kind of return the savings […]
Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus – Sunday, June 4
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to […]
