Category Archive: Finance
The Limited Exposure Of The US Economy To Trade
Listening to complaints about the effects of globalization on the US economy, one might be tempted to believe that the US economy is more exposed to the pressures of global trade than most other countries, and that the US market is uniquely open to world trade. countries. But these beliefs are not true. A common […]
Mutiny “For” The Bounty?
China recently announced they will trade oil for yuan “backed” by gold. The story has gotten some press (none of it mainstream mind you), and many have questions as to what it really means. While quite complicated as a whole, when you break this down into pieces I believe it is a quite simple and logical […]
September 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Significantly Worsens – Thank Hurricane Harvey
This week we have the Hurricane Harvey affect. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 235 K to 246 K (consensus 239,000), and the Department of Labor reported 298,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the […]
Copper, Oil, Gold And US Stocks: Big Picture Status
Sometimes I like to trot these lumbering monthlies out so we can quiet everything down and see where various markets are slowly heading. First of all, as I go down with my ‘strengthening US dollar’ ship*, I also mal-projected copper’s upside. I’d felt that $3/lb. would cap Doctor Copper because it is very clear lateral […]
Market Valuation, Inflation And Treasury Yields: Clues From The Past – Thursday, September 7
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly data. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — […]
It’s Falling Apart: Yields Hit YTD Lows, Stocks Fall As Reality Sinks In
Ok, it’s all falling apart now. As Bloomberg notes, “10Y futs just rose more than 10 ticks on heavy volume with the price topping the earlier session high 127-13 [while] S&P futures are continuing to pare gains from the cash open.” It looks like between jitters about Hurricane Irma, a sense that another ICBM launch […]
Brexit Blues
The UK parliament has reconvened after its summer recess, but negotiations between representatives of the EU and the UK have been taking place with the aim of settling the financial obligations that the UK owes the bloc; the rights of EU citizens in the UK post Brexit and those of their counterparts living in EU […]
Dovish Draghi Defers Taper, Stimulus Exit; Euro Bulls Undeterred
At this morning’s European Central Bank rate decision, market participants walked-in with the legitimate prospect of hearing how the ECB may look to taper their asset purchase program ahead of the designated end date of December 2017. Throughout this year, European economic data has remained strong, further highlighting signs of recovery in the Euro-Zone and […]
Northwest Biotherapeutics, Bristol-Myers Squibb: Success For The Yervoy-Opdivo Combination
The stoppage at an interim analysis of Bristol-Myers Squibb’s’ CHECKMATE-214 trial provides meaningful information into assessing the potential fro success of Northwest Biotherapeutics’ phase 3, DCVax-L trial. CHECKMATE-214 compared a combination the immunotherapy drugs Opdivo and Yervoy to Sutent (standard of care) in previously untreated, advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC). The trial was […]
What Wage Growth? Unit Labor Costs Decline Despite So-Called “Tight Labor Market”
Despite all the hope for higher incomes spewing from within the various soft-surveys of individuals and businesses across America, Q2 saw unit labor costs decline 0.2% year-over-year – the second YoY drop in the last 3 quarters. Despite all the great news about lowe eunemployment rates and solid payrolls prints, aggregate unit labor costs for America are […]
