Category Archive: Finance
PBoC Strengthens Yuan Fix For Eighth Day – Longest Streak Since 2015
As noted earlier, the offshore yuan snapped a record 14-day winning streak against the dollar on Tuesday after the PBoC strengthened the yuan fix less than expected overnight. Again, it’s all about expectations. That is, the PBoC ostensibly takes the previous day’s action into account when determining the next day’s fix, although during the […]
Once Again, Not Korea But March
It’s hard not to put all emphasis on missile tests and other serious forms of sabre rattling. Even doing so, as the bond market may be doing right now, however, misses the underlying. Everything at the moment traces back to mid-March, which in hindsight was a very eventful month in full far away from the […]
Term Spread – Tuesday, Sept 5
As I was compiling background notes for the new semester, I found the current level and trend in the term spread of interest. Figure 1: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red), %. Observations for September are 9/5. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: FRED, Bloomberg, […]
35% Chance Of A Debt Ceiling Crisis
Debt Ceiling Resolved Soon? Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a government shutdown, caused by the debt ceiling not being raised, from 50% to 35%. These numbers are somewhat arbitrary because there’s no way of knowing the precise odds of a shutdown. This situation is like when analysts come up with price targets which include […]
It’s A Stormy Season For Markets Too
The market got a little spooked today. Congress is back in session. Cause and effect? Maybe, because pretty soon hopes of what might be accomplished in by Washington will be met with reality. However, here’s what I’m focussed on. Bonds (TLT) rallied 1.59% which is the biggest 1 day percentage move since June of 2016. […]
Market Rates – Tuesday, Sept 5
Sector Strength This spreadsheet is telling us to own foreign, large cap and the defensive stocks. The leading sectors are Technology, Health Care, Utilities. These are the sectors that run up when investors are feeling cautious. Some would disagree regarding Technology, but the stellar balance sheets of large cap technology is now considered defensive. Foreign […]
Biopharmaceuticals Portfolio In A Biotech Bull Market
Biotech Bull Market 2017 Performance as of 9/5/17 Rayno Biopharmaceutical Portfolio outperforms the market. XBI was the Best Play up 41.88% YTD. Biotech stocks broke through the July sector highs as tracked by major ETFs. However we are still about 25% off the July 2015 bubble highs but supported by good earnings fundamentals, strong technicals and potentially a seasonal strong Q4. […]
EUR: The ECB Poses ‘2-Way’ Risks For EUR/USD On Thursday – Barclays
The European Central Bank’s meeting is getting closer and the tension is felt in euro/dollar. Here is the view from Barclays: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that the ECB meeting on Thursday poses ‘two-way’ risks for EUR/USD. “We expect that the ECB will leave its policy settings […]
North Korean Profit Taking
Friday’s tight action plus a long weekend of North Korea news left traders skittish and wanting out. However, there wasn’t a significant break of support to suggest a rout is imminent but further losses need to be watched. The S&P is resting on rising support but the nature of today’s candlestick is not one to […]
Oh, Those GPUs….
OK, at the moment, I have nothing to say – – but we need a comment cleaner! So I’ll just toss in this cute little SlopeChart to show the correlation between BitCoin and Nvidia. There are a handful of firms which make GPUs, Nvidia being big of the lot, this chipmaker’s fortune is tied tightly to bitcoin’s. With the nearly […]
