Category Archive: Finance
Durable Goods Orders Decline 6.8% Led By Aircraft
Huge surges and declines in aircraft orders have made for extremely volatile durable goods orders lately. Last month aircraft orders surged 227 percent, this month aircraft orders plunged 82 percent. Last month aircraft orders surged 227 percent, this month aircraft orders plunged 82 percent. Amidst this volatility, the Econoday consensus estimate of -5.8% was reasonably close to […]
Large Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey reported a 6.1% decline in bullish investor sentiment to 28.1%. The bullish sentiment level is now near one standard deviation below the long term average. Nearly all of the decline in the bullish sentiment showed up in the bearish number which increased 5.5%. The bull/bear spread is now -10.4 percentage points. […]
It’s Official: Copper Price Breaks Out
The price of copper is breaking out. We wrote recently that investors should wait for the Ultimate Confirmation Of A New Bull Market In Copper, and we identified $3.00 as the ultimate breakout point. As copper is blasting through $3.00 now it seems we are getting that confirmation. Note there is always this possibility of a false breakout. It […]
Ulta Drops As Sales Growth Slows Amid Amazon, Department Store Competition
Shares of Ulta Beauty (ULTA) plunged in early trading after reporting quarterly comparable sales that declined from last year. Ulta’s report comes as department stores are discounting high-end cosmetics and as consumers shift to shopping online and away from physical stores. EARNINGS: After the market close on Thursday, Ulta reported second quarter earnings per share […]
Dollar Drops On Yellen’s Jackson Hole Remarks; Highlights
Developing… It doesn’t look like there’s much in Yellen’s remarks regarding whether or to what extent the Fed would step in to address risks to financial stability. Further, I’m not seeing a whole lot here that has the potential to alter anyone’s views on balance sheet timing or the trajectory of policy normalization, but maybe […]
All Eyes On Jackson Hole
With this being one of the last Friday’s of the summer vacation season, we can probably expect trading volumes to remain light today. But make no mistake about it; all eyes will be on Jackson Hole this morning where both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are slated to speak. The key here is that Fed […]
Forex Weekly Outlook – Aug. 28 – Sep. 1, 2017
The US dollar was on the back foot against most currencies in the last full week of August. An update on US GDP, consumer confidence, and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week. Sales of US new homes and also existing ones fell short of expectations, but these were not disasters. Yet together […]
“Un-Hawkish” Yellen Sparks Dollar Dump To 2017 Lows; Stocks, Bonds, & Bullion Bounce
A lack of hawkishness was good enough for traders to pile into the dovish – sell dollars, buy everything else trade. The Dollar Index plunged though to cycle lows, near May 2016 1150 lows… As many predicted, Yellen’s speech – while containing some cautions – was a nothing burger.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: “Flashback: Declining Productivity In Construction”
Today’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.1, down slightly from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.64%, mostly unchanged from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.3, down from the previous week. “Flashback: Declining […]
Harvey Still Forecast To Make Landfall As A Major Hurricane
Forecasts overnight did not shift significantly for Harvey, which continues to progress right at the Texas coastline. Landfall near Corpus Christie looks the most likely, though impacts will obviously be far more widespread. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has Harvey make landfall as a strong Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph. […]
