Category Archive: Finance
Lashed To The Zero Bound – The Fed’s Ship Of Fools
If you don’t think financial markets have been utterly destroyed by central bank intrusion then how can you explain Friday’s 460 Dow point reversal higher after the post-NFP low? It was pure machine rage triggered by another implied “lower for longer” Fed policy signal. While I think the BLS establishment survey isn’t worth the paper it’s manipulated on, it did take a […]
Risk Premia Forecasts | 5 October 2015
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) dipped again in September. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.2% over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each […]
EC The Most Important Investing Risk
The stock market has averaged compound total returns of about 9% a year over the last 100+ years. This means a doubling of your money about every 8 years. When your money doubles every 8 years on average you will eventually become very wealthy. And that’s only if you match the market returns. Surely, some investors should beat […]
Great Graphic: Evolving NPL Challenge In Europe
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has argued that the poor productivity has held back growth in the US. This seems true in Europe as well, but it has an additional problem: nonperforming loans. As a fraction of all EU loans, the nonperforming share has doubled since 2009 to one trillion euros or 9% of the region’s […]
Target Date Funds As Aid In Portfolio Design
Investors in or near retirement should be aware of portfolio design leading fund sponsors suggest as appropriate Leading target date funds appear to generally have less severe worst drawdowns that a US 60/40 balanced fund The funds have slightly higher yields than a US 60/40 balanced fund Target date funds have underperformed a US 60/40 […]
Signs Of Bullish Hope – Weekly Market Outlook
Despite the bearish start to the week on Monday and a bearish initial response to Friday morning’s employment report for September, the bulls managed to reversal course Friday afternoon to hammer out a big gain for that day and even a small gain for the week. A couple of the key indices even managed to […]
GBP/USD Sees Bear Threats, Targets The 1.5166/33 Zone
GBPUSD: GBP faces downside pressure following its rejection candle print on Friday. This was formed after unsustained rally and the pair looks to weaken further having given away most of its intra day gains during Monday trading session. It looks to take out the 1.5166/33 zone, its strong support. If this occurs, further weakness is […]
Gold The Pending Question
Gold Room Fort Knox QUESTION: Martin, With your recent comments on gold; you seem to be implicitly suggesting people to sell their gold, since there is a good chance for it to bottom-out at a sub-$1000 level. Wouldn’t it make far more sense to hold onto it at least till November? 1) We don’t know for […]
Some Daily Charts
SPX is at its MA 200. Time to bounce to keep this unpleasant chart from becoming ugly like the Dow. Dow is around a short-term trend line but below lateral support. It can bounce but this has technical damage. Uncle Buck was down yesterday as well as the Euro popped (short covering?). Unc […]
