Category Archive: Finance, No picture
The Next Recession Could Be In 2019
With Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth at 26.58%, core PCE inflation only at 2%, and small business optimism at the highest level in the 45-year history of the NFIB survey, there’s not much reason to be bearish on equities in the intermediate term. The biggest concern in the next few months is a potential trade war. FactSet determined in […]
How Could Trump Tariffs Double America’s Trade Losses
Trump tariffs are based on flawed doctrines, which could penalize the US as much as its trade deficits. Last Friday, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of the additional $200 billion that he said will likely be hit with import taxes in a matter of days. If […]
Euro, British Pound May Diverge On ECB And BOE Policy Decisions
All eyes are on policy announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England in European trading hours. No changes are expected from either monetary authority but volatility emerge all the same as markets digest the forward guidance on offer. The ECB seems to be on autopilot through year-end as it winds down QE asset purchases. That […]
The Divergence Between U.S. And Asian Markets
One aspect about the continued run in US markets is the disconnect that has developed over the past 4 months to Asian markets. These markets have generally moved together in the recent past. Chris Temple joins me to discuss what he thinks a reversion to the mean could look like and if this buy the […]
The Business Cycle
Today’s topic is the U.S. business cycle. Manufacturing PMIs moved up to a new cycle high and the household delinquency rate dropped to a new cycle low. Bank lending standards continued to ease. Video Length: 00:06:28
The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies – Wednesday, Sept. 12
With so much focus on bitcoin lately, we’ve added a new weekly update that tracks the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple. According to Wikipedia, a cryptocurrency is “a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional […]
“How Long Til All Hell Breaks Loose”: This Is Now The Strongest Ever Rally During A Fed Tightening Cycle
The US stock market just keeps crushing historical records: longest bull market ever, S&P rising above 2,900, two trillion-dollar stocks, an unprecedented divergence between US stock and the rest of the world, and now – the strongest ever rally during a Fed tightening period. According to an analysis by Crescat Capital’s Tavi Costa, since the first […]
CNH Vs CNY: Differences Between The Two Yuan
WHAT IS CNH AND CNY AND WHAT ARE THE MAIN DIFFERENCES? CNH refers to the Chinese Yuan in the offshore market, which is outside of Mainland China (the onshore market). China’s capital markets, including the FX market, are controlled and not fully opened yet. This leads to different features of the Chinese currency in the onshore and […]
Are The Metals Rising From The Grave?
Last night, we looked at the sardonic bull wearing a crown with 5 distinct warning signals. To review, the first one was certainly Semiconductors (SMH). Today, not only did SMH confirm the warning phase, it also broke the 200 DMA, hence, entered an unconfirmed distribution phase. Furthermore, should SMH’s price remain below 103.75 level by […]
These Numbers Could Push The Fed To Do Something Stupid
The Daily Treasury Statement data for the end of month August showed some improvement in total tax collections, including a slight uptick in withholding taxes and an even bigger increase in excise taxes. The numbers suggest that an early summer slowdown has ended. After the expected downward revisions in June and July jobs data, the […]
