Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Visualizing GDP: An Inside Look At The Q3 Advance Estimate – October 2018
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the Q3 2018 Advance Estimate released Friday morning. The chart below is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. It uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of […]
How’s The (All) Weather Portfolio?
In the last couple of years the phrase ‘All Weather Portfolio’ has come to be popularly associated with Ray Dalio and Bridgewater Associates. The Bridgewater portfolio is a risk parity strategy which means it tries to balance out the risk taken across multiple asset classes which means it often ends up needing to use leverage to […]
Crude Oil Set For Third Weekly Decline Chasing Stock Markets Lower
Fundamental Forecast for : Neutral FUNDAMENTAL CRUDE OIL PRICE TALKING POINTS: The ONE Thing: Three makes a trend as Crude oil has pushed aggressively lower and the premium that had supported the market on near-term futures contracts continues to move toward zero. The correlation to WTI and stocks are coming at a bad time as stocks show their worst performance […]
Q3 Real GDP Per Capita: 2.83% Versus The 3.50% Headline Real GDP
The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 3.5% (3.50% to two decimals), down from 4.2% in Q2. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.83% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we’ve chained in today’s dollar for […]
USD/CAD Rate Threatens Bearish Trend Ahead Of U.S. NFP Report
Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Bearish USD/CAD extends the advance from the monthly-low (1.2782) even as the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivers a hawkish rate-hike, and recent price action keeps the topside targets on the radar as the exchange rate threatens the bearish trend from earlier this year. It seems as though the BoC will pick up the […]
Week In Review: Innovent Completes $421 Million Hong Kong IPO; Will Start Trading Next Week
Innovent Biologics has priced its Hong Kong IPO to raise $421 million, very close to the top of the expected range (see story). The company set its offering price at HK$13.98, just below the top of the range. The successful IPO shows investors are still interested in young China biopharmas, even though the three earlier pre-revenue biotech […]
Has A USD Correction Begun?
The MSCI benchmark for developed and emerging market equities has fallen for the past five weeks. The dollar has done well over this period. Although it lost some momentum ahead of the weekend, the Dollar Index reached a two-month high at the end week, reflecting the two-month lows of the euro and sterling. The Australian dollar recorded […]
