Category Archive: Finance, No picture
SPX Declines Into Correction Mode
VIX rose above its Cycle Top at 20.07, closing above it. The Cycles Model shows probable weakness lasting another week, but the upcoming election may hold sway over volatility. (Bloomberg) Stocks are chaotic. The reaction in markets for equity volatility is anything but. Pravit Chintawongvanich, equity derivatives strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, flags that measures […]
S&P 500 Snapshot: Close To A Correction
The S&P 500 experienced losses four out of five days this week and neared a correction on Friday, closing 9.28% below the record close. Friday saw a loss of 1.73%. The index is down 3.9% from last week and up 1.38% YTD. The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 3.08%. […]
How Many Stocks Should I Own?
Introduction One of the most commonly asked questions I receive from investors is: how many stocks should I put in my portfolio? This is a widely debated subject that is most commonly referred to as concentrated versus widely diversified portfolio construction. Of course, the widely diversified camp likes holding a lot of stocks and therefore […]
E The US Job Market Should Be Overheating. Why Not?
The latest job numbers for September suggest that the American job market is still very strong. Based on the household survey, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in September from 3.9% in August, the lowest rate since December 1969 when many working-age Americans were serving in Vietnam. Although the September non-farm sector payrolls were much […]
GDP Prices The Final End Of Hysteria
Jerome Powell may be hawkish, relatively speaking, but his case rests on one data point alone. There is nothing other than the unemployment right now indicating he’s got the right forecast in mind. This wasn’t true just months ago. At the end of 2017 and for a few months in 2018, inflation was moving upward […]
Australian Dollar Might Get Some Respite If Inflation Holds Up
Fundamental Forecast for AUD:Neutral FUNDAMENTAL AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: AUD/USD remains under severe fundamental pressure However, it has so far remained just above its recent, 2018 lows A strong inflation print could keep it there The Australian Dollar continues to languish close to this year’s lows against its US cousin, but, while there’s little scope to […]
Globalization Has Hollowed Out Rural America
What do we make of an economy in which a handful of bubblicious urban areas are magnets for jobs and capital while rural communities have been hollowed out? The short answer is that this progression of urbanization has been one of the core dynamics of civilization for thousands of years: opportunities are greater in cities, and […]
Reasons Behind The Global Financial Crisis
1) Fed and the rest of central banks’ policy seen to be divergent again Fed is walking ahead of anyone else in the world. The BOJ continued its aggressive easing with the introduction of forward guidance. The BOE raised rates, but Mark Carney made clear that it probably needs to wait a long time for […]
E Global Investing: Friday File
Why is gold failing to rise as stocks around the world fall? I think it may be because there are too many alternatives which are more fun than boring heavy metal: cryptocurrencies, cannabis shares, and even oil stocks. They are roller coaster performers, which is exciting and appeals to lazy people hoping to get rich quick. […]
Friday Income Investing
Panic! Panic! Panic! music selection: “Cradle To The Grave” — Five Finger Death Punch I am getting a lot of panicky emails from readers as the market goes through a normal 10% or so correction. Really, you should be prepared for a 10% decline every 6-9 months or so. I have some generalized advice for […]
