Category Archive: Finance, No picture
USD/CHF: Crowded Longs Scrambling To Abandon Ship?
A full six weeks ago, we highlighted how the combination of a bearish candlestick formation and a clear divergence in the RSI indicator suggested that USD/CHF could be topping (see “USD/CHF: Potential bearish reversal forming at 14-month highs” for more). While its certainly taken longer than expected, USD/CHF has indeed drifted lower since that fateful day, with […]
Gold Rebound Fizzles As US Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Improves
GOLD TALKING POINTS The recent rebound in gold appears to be losing steam following an unexpected uptick in the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, but recent price action warns of a larger recovery as the precious metal initiates a fresh series of higher highs & lows. GOLD REBOUND FIZZLES AS U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UNEXPECTEDLY IMPROVES Gold pulls back […]
Downside Not Upside Global Risk
The UST yield curve continues to flatten (as it does elsewhere). All sorts of mainstream articles have been published lately about it. Many of them often refer to academic pieces ostensibly trying assuage all fears about the yield curve’s threatening inversion. Fret not the distortion, they say. And they are right. As I constantly remind people, […]
Economic Data Calls
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Aug 29, 2018). 1. CA Current Account Balance (8:30 NY Time) — Bullish CAD Potential for upside surprise given improved trade balance 2. US GDP and Pending Home Sales (8:30 and 10:00 NY Time) No Trade — Revisions to GDP are hard to predict but changes can be […]
Morgan Stanley Sees Potential For ‘Big’ Dividend Raise From Microsoft
Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss notes that Microsoft typically announces a dividend raise in mid-September and points out that the company has raised its dividend by an average of 14% annually since the financial crises in 2009, when the dividend was unchanged. Microsoft has underperformed the market the day after its dividend announcement in nine […]
Inventory Adjustment Adds 2 Percentage Points To GDPNow Estimate
The gap between GDPNow and Nowcast is 2.6 percentage points, the widest ever. Inventories pad the GDPNow estimate. The spread between the GDPNow model and the Nowcast model of GDP predictions is the largest ever. GDP Estimates GDPNow: 4.6% GDPNow Real Final Sales: 2.6% GDPNow CIPI: 2.0% Nowcast: 2.0% The GDPNow Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) component is as […]
US Dollar Drops To August Lows – Is The Bullish Trend Finished?
Talking Points The US Dollar has fallen-below the bullish trend-line that has supported prices over the past two months, and we’re now seeing sellers test August lows in the currency around 94.50. The big driver here appears to be the recovery in EUR/USD, as the pair has now recovered the entirety of the prior August losses, […]
