Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Macroeconomic Considerations
The force that had pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to 3% and the dollar above JPY113 at the start of the month, and the euro to $1.13 a couple of weeks ago, has dissipated. The 10-year yield is near 2.80%. The dollar was near two-month lows against the yen a week ago, and the euro […]
Weekly Economic And Political Timeline – Sunday, August 26
This week will see an even lighter week than last week, with no central bank input due at all. There will be only a very few major economic data releases, primarily concerning the U.S. and Canadian Dollars. The market is likely to be most active on Wednesday. Monday is a public holiday in the United Kingdom. U.S. […]
Reliable Yields Are The Best
Before jumping at an attractive yield, investors should pause to consider its consistency. In recent years, traditional MLP investors were victims of one of the greatest betrayals in U.S. financial history. Older, wealthy Americans were drawn to companies that paid out most of their cashflow in distributions. For years, America’s energy came from roughly the […]
E US Monetary Policy Vs. Budget Deficit
The Fed is still on track to gradually tighten its monetary policy by using two related instruments, raising interest rates and gradually reducing its securities holdings. What follows inititally is a bit of familiar history. In response to the severe economic downturn and the financial crisis that gripped the U.S. in 2008 and 2009, the […]
One Ring To Rule Them All
From the mailbag: How does one apportion the market effects of the three-body problem between the narrative effects of central bank purchases versus the direct capital flows of central bank activities? And does the distinction matter?— @Hals_Ego I don’t have a strong methodology here, but my best guess is that the Narrative effect on markets […]
E Tariff Jitters Boosted U.S. Economic Growth In The Second Quarter
U.S. real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter as compared with only 2.2% growth in the first. The price index for GDP increased 2.3% in the second quarter, and nominal GDP expanded by 7.4%, also considerably faster than the Q1 growth rate. A 4% expansion of consumer […]
Latest Freight Data Confirms Alarming Slowdown In Global Trade
While the US stock market and economy continue to remain stubbornly immune to the ongoing trade war, the same can not be said for global trade as observed and measured by world freight shipping and volumes. According to the latest Goldman freight data, there has been a gradual slowing in global trade since 4Q17, and […]
US Dollar Sheds Windfall Gains, May Resume Core Uptrend
by Ilya Spivak , Sr. Currency Strategist FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: BULLISH US DOLLAR TALKING POINTS: US Dollar lower as haven-linked gains are unwound Powell speech at Jackson Hole sticks to the status quo Fed outlook shift, reopening of Turkey markets eyed The US Dollar retreated for a second consecutive week, suffering the largest drawdown in over six […]
