Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Nervous Investors Pile Into Low Volatility, Defensive ETFs
Lately, the U.S. stock market has been caught in a vicious circle of trading as higher interest rates, collapse in oil prices, concerns over trade war and its resultant threats on the global economy unnerved investors. Additionally, the strong profit growth era seems to be coming to an end with most analysts expecting an earnings […]
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update: WLIg Sees Sixth Negative Week
This morning’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.9, down from the previous week’s 145.5. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at -0.33%, down from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -3.74, also down from the previous week. “Construction […]
Have Fed Expectations Shifted To An Extreme?
(Audio length 00:12:06) Chris Temple and I address the overwhelming shift in exceptions that at the next FOMC meeting in December the Fed will switch course. Most people still think the Fed will hike rates however expectations into next year have almost completely reversed. This could all be overdone as market corrections are healthy and […]
Corporate Share Buybacks Looking Dumber By The Day
A recent MarketWatch article notes that: GE was one of Wall Street’s major share buyback operators between 2015 and 2017; it repurchased $40 billion of shares at prices between $20 and $32. The share price is now $8.60, so the company has liquidated between $23 billion and $29 billion of its shareholders’ money on this utterly futile […]
Durable Goods Orders Drop 4.4% In October, Huge Negative Adjustment In September
Durable goods new orders fell 4.4% in October. The Census Department revised September from +0.8% to -0.1%. The Census Department Advance Durable Goods Report for October shows unexpected weakness on top of a huge negative revision. New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion, the U.S. […]
3 Funds To Benefit From A Rebound In Housing Starts
Homebuilding in the United States sprung back to life in October on an upswing in multi-family housing starts. A series of dismal economic reports about America’s housing industry has been recently released. This has led to speculation that the economy is headed for yet another housing bubble. Having said that, the U.S. housing market is […]
To Succeed In The Markets You Must Become A ‘Second Level Thinker’
“To achieve superior investment results, you have to hold non-consensus views regarding value, and they have to be right. That’s not easy… The good news is that the prevalence of first level thinkers increases the returns available to second level thinkers. To consistently achieve superior investment returns, you must be one of them.” -Howard Marks, The Most […]
Finally Closing The Book On Harvey And Irma, Opening A New Economic Chapter To?
I, for one, am sick of still writing about 2017’s tropical season. It’s been well more than a year and yet we are just now finally moving past them. It would’ve been healthier and more honest had there been more appreciation for what they really were going to do for/to the US economy. Without any […]
The “Real” Goods On The October Durable Goods Data – Wednesday, Nov. 21
This morning, the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on the latest Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let’s now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts below the gray line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly […]
