Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus – Sunday, Sept.30
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to […]
Is Bitcoin Finally Settling In To Be A Useful Diversifier?
I’ve long been intrigued with cryptocurrencies (not an early adopter by any means though) and whether the space can evolve into some sort of portfolio diversifier that I can use for clients. I had a short term trade (just a couple of weeks) in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in the middle of it’s parabolic […]
Jobless Claims Spike 12,000 Mostly Due To Hurricane Florence
As predicted, the jobless claims report was the first one to show weakness related to Hurricane Florence. Jobless claims were 214,000 which was a 12,000 increase from the previous week. The 4 week moving average only increased 250 to 206,250. It was 1,000 higher than the consensus estimate. Almost the entire reason for the increase was […]
GDP Estimates Dive Following Trade And Income Data
GDP estimates generally tanked this week. Curiously, the Nowcast forecast rose. I can show why. GDPNow The GDPNow forecast fell from 4.4% on September 26 to 3.8% on September 27, then to 3.6% on September 28. Disastrous trade data accounted for 0.5 percentage points of the drop on the 27th. Income and expenditures accounted for the entire […]
Fourth Quarter Forecasts For Dollar, Euro, Oil, Equities And More
The third quarter is now in the books, and the revival of market volatility and uncertainty around key thematic influences carries over into the fourth quarter of 2018. With fundamental issues around US-led trade wars, Brexit, the Italian government, Turkey, emerging market contagion, among others lingering, the final three months of the year should produce […]
JPMorgan Sees Full-Blown US-China Trade War In “New Baseline”; Could “End US Stock Market Rally”
With US traders still blissfully ignoring the consequences of escalating trade war between the US and China, which has yet to make any material dent on either the US economy or S&P 500 corporate profits, prominent sellside banks have increasingly taken to issuing louder warnings about how they see said conflict progressing. Late last week, […]
Book Review: Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle
Howard Marks, cochairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing, expands on one of his twenty “most important things” in Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2018). Marks paints in broad strokes, so the reader will not come away from this book with any concrete […]
Drivers: The Week Ahead
Four events stand out in the first week of October: the situation in Italy, UK Prime Minister May’s speech at the Tory Party Conference, the EMU PMI, and the US jobs data. We suspect that the market overreacted to the Italian government’s 2.4% deficit projection. It is not an unreasonable outcome given the election. Italy […]
British Pound Q4 Forecast: Pound Traders Will Find Brexit Remains The Driver
As we enter the fourth quarter of 2018, the British Pound is picking itself up from its lows comparable to those plunged in summer 2017, and starting to re-coup some of this year’s losses. The driver for this move is not monetary policy, nor recent data that has held up well in the face of […]
