Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Fourth Quarter Forecasts For Dollar, Euro, Oil, Equities And More
The third quarter is now in the books, and the revival of market volatility and uncertainty around key thematic influences carries over into the fourth quarter of 2018. With fundamental issues around US-led trade wars, Brexit, the Italian government, Turkey, emerging market contagion, among others lingering, the final three months of the year should produce […]
JPMorgan Sees Full-Blown US-China Trade War In “New Baseline”; Could “End US Stock Market Rally”
With US traders still blissfully ignoring the consequences of escalating trade war between the US and China, which has yet to make any material dent on either the US economy or S&P 500 corporate profits, prominent sellside banks have increasingly taken to issuing louder warnings about how they see said conflict progressing. Late last week, […]
Book Review: Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle
Howard Marks, cochairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing, expands on one of his twenty “most important things” in Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2018). Marks paints in broad strokes, so the reader will not come away from this book with any concrete […]
Drivers: The Week Ahead
Four events stand out in the first week of October: the situation in Italy, UK Prime Minister May’s speech at the Tory Party Conference, the EMU PMI, and the US jobs data. We suspect that the market overreacted to the Italian government’s 2.4% deficit projection. It is not an unreasonable outcome given the election. Italy […]
British Pound Q4 Forecast: Pound Traders Will Find Brexit Remains The Driver
As we enter the fourth quarter of 2018, the British Pound is picking itself up from its lows comparable to those plunged in summer 2017, and starting to re-coup some of this year’s losses. The driver for this move is not monetary policy, nor recent data that has held up well in the face of […]
E Johnson & Johnson: Recession Safety, Growth And Valuation
As the ongoing bull market has become the longest in history and S&P is trading at an all-time high, many investors are afraid that a bear market is just around the corner. Consequently, they hesitate to have exposure to stocks, fearing that the losses from the current levels may be devastating. However, it is a […]
More ETF Innovation Coming To A Brokerage Account Near You
Innovation is great, using it incorrectly isn’t. I have written a few times about WisdomTree’s increasingly innovative suite of funds. WisdomTree was one of the first niche fund providers which at first focused on dividend oriented strategies but have since expanded to include a wide swath of strategy types including various kinds of alternative strategies, […]
E Canada’s Household Credit Growth Is Slowing, A Sign That The Economy Is Slowing
The good news is that Canadian household indebtedness has leveled off over the past couple of years, albeit at elevated levels. Other measures of indebtedness (e.g. debt-to-asset ratio and debt-to-net worth ratio) also suggest similar levels of relative stability. In other words, rising interest rates and tough new mortgage rules have finally achieved for Canadians […]
Ray Dalio: “Soundness Of Our Finances Is Weak”
Ray Dalio founded the largest and most successful hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates. Today Bridgewater manages $160 billion and has produced returns of $49.7 billion for its investors since its inception in 1975. Thanks to his firm’s impressive performance, Dalio is now one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world. Dalio recently answered […]
E The Brexit Deadline Approaches, And The UK Economy Is Already Slowing
The Bank of England held off on raising interest rates at its September meeting, citing the greater uncertainty about future developments in the European Union withdrawal process. The central bank’s staff reported that businesses were tightening cost controls and holding off on investment ahead of Britain’s March 29, 2019 deadline for withdrawal from the EU. […]
