Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Can Seasonal Adjustments Help Us Understand The Economy?
According to mainstream thinking, economic slumps are caused by various shocks. This means that these slumps are caused by unexpected events, which by implication are not known beforehand. Obviously if reasons behind various shocks cannot be established beforehand it makes sense to look at various symptoms of the emerging economic slump. Based on these symptoms […]
Week In Review: Shanghai Henlius To File For Hong Kong IPO At Valuation Of Over $1 Billion
Shanghai Fosun Pharma (HK: 02196: SHA: 600196) announced it will seek a Hong Kong IPO for Shanghai Henlius Biotech, its monoclonal antibody JV subsidiary (see story). At the same time, the company will withdraw its application for a listing on China’s Third Board, the National Equities Exchange and Quotations System. Founded in 2010, Henlius is a joint […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 8 And15
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of October 8 October 9 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – September 108.8 108.8 108.0 October 10 Producer Price […]
SPX Closes At Short-Term Support
VIX rallied above its Long-Term resistance and bullish flag formation at 14.45, confirming a buy signal. The Cycles Model shows a likely surge in strength for the VIX through late October. (Bloomberg) The scariest Halloween costume imaginable pales in comparison to a Friday inversion of the VIX futures curve. A severe sell-off in technology […]
The Cost Of Having A Taper Tantrum
Remember the Taper Tantrum in 2013? That was when 10 year T-Bond yields rose about 1.3% off a floor of 1.7% and stocks also fell. Over a six-month period the All World Stock Index fell about 9% and 30 year T-Bonds fell 15%. Even a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio of US stocks and Total Bonds fell […]
Beware: Dollar’s Technical Condition Is Stretched, Look Out For Reversals
The US dollar advanced against most of the major currencies last week, with Brexit hopes on the upswing, helping sterling to be the only major currency to resist the pressure. If players were looking for an excuse to sell dollar the disappointing September jobs growth could have been it, but the bout of buying the rumor […]
3 Retail Stocks To Buy With 2018 Holiday Shopping Sales Set To Jump
Consumer confidence neared an 18-year high last month. Now it looks like the 2018 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a big one. So, let’s dive into three retailers that seem like strong buys right now that might also get a boost from a rise in holiday season spending. September’s Consumer Confidence […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators; September Nonfarm Employment
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
How To Play The Current State Of Mind Of The Market
If you really think about it, the stock market closely resembles a living, breathing entity. It’s like an organism composed of millions and millions of cells, where each cell is an entity, a person, or an institution that makes investment and trading decisions. While individuals make buy and sell decisions, the pulse of the market […]
