Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Inflation: An X-Ray View Of The Components – Friday, September 14
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how […]
Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected, July Revised Up, Large Y-o-Y Amazon Impact
Retail sales only rose 0.1% in Aug, but July was revised from +0.5% to +0.7%. Amazon impact stands out year-over-year. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales report for August 2018 shows unexpected weakness as retail sales rose only 0.1% vs the consensus estimate of 0.4% The noticeable standout in this […]
EUR/USD Begins Test Of Key Resistance, USD Bounces From Monthly Lows
NEXT WEEK’S CALENDAR CALMS, BUT WILL EURO BULLS, DOLLAR BEARS SHOW THEIR HAND? This week’s economic calendar was rather heavy, particularly Thursday, and this leaves FX markets in a state of limbo as we lead into a quieter calendar for next week. The big question surrounding FX markets at the moment concern two of the […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.4% In August
Note: This commentary has been updated to incorporate the August data for Industrial Production. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, […]
The Dollar Is Central To The Next Crisis
Introduction and summary It is now possible to pencil in how the next credit crisis is likely to develop. At its centre is an overvalued dollar over-owned by foreigners, puffed up on speculative flows driven by interest rate differentials. These must be urgently corrected by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan if […]
Import Prices Unexpectedly Drop 0.6%, Most In 18 Months: Export Prices Drop 0.1%
Import prices fell 0.6%. Economists expected a 0.1% decline. Export prices fell 0.1%. Economists expected a 0.2% rise. The BLS report on Import and Export Prices surprised economists with unexpected declines. Import Prices Key Points Synopsis*: Import prices declined 0.6 percent in August, the largest monthly drop since the index fell 1.3 percent in January 2016*. The […]
3 Reasons Why The USD Is On Its Feet Again
The US Dollar is back from a break, gaining ground across the board. A mix of optimism, good enough data and rising yields is behind the greenback comeback. The US Dollar dropped on Thursday amid disappointing inflation data. Risk currencies also enjoyed no news on the trade tariffs that the Trump Administration wants to impose on China. […]
Enhance Your Returns With 4 Relative Price Strength Stocks
Investors generally gauge a stock’s potential return by examining earnings growth and valuation multiples. At the same time, it’s important to measure the performance of such a stock relative to its industry or peers, or the appropriate benchmark. If you see that a stock is underperforming on fundamental factors, then it would be prudent to […]
August Retail Sales: Up 0.1% MoM, Worse Than Forecast
The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report for August was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.1% month-over-month to one decimal and was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 0.4%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.32% MoM (to two decimals). Revisions were made to June and July figures. Here is the introduction from […]
Downgrading The Storms
In a week where the U.S. became the world largest oil producer and saw U.S. oil demand hit a record high on a 4-week average, the market must continue to focus on the risks from Mother Nature. Oil prices pulled back yesterday from resistance as the market reduced the risk of a tropical depression in […]
