Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Economic Data Calls
Here’s what we are looking for in tomorrow’s economic reports (Aug 29, 2018). 1. CA Current Account Balance (8:30 NY Time) — Bullish CAD Potential for upside surprise given improved trade balance 2. US GDP and Pending Home Sales (8:30 and 10:00 NY Time) No Trade — Revisions to GDP are hard to predict but changes can be […]
Morgan Stanley Sees Potential For ‘Big’ Dividend Raise From Microsoft
Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss notes that Microsoft typically announces a dividend raise in mid-September and points out that the company has raised its dividend by an average of 14% annually since the financial crises in 2009, when the dividend was unchanged. Microsoft has underperformed the market the day after its dividend announcement in nine […]
Inventory Adjustment Adds 2 Percentage Points To GDPNow Estimate
The gap between GDPNow and Nowcast is 2.6 percentage points, the widest ever. Inventories pad the GDPNow estimate. The spread between the GDPNow model and the Nowcast model of GDP predictions is the largest ever. GDP Estimates GDPNow: 4.6% GDPNow Real Final Sales: 2.6% GDPNow CIPI: 2.0% Nowcast: 2.0% The GDPNow Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) component is as […]
US Dollar Drops To August Lows – Is The Bullish Trend Finished?
Talking Points The US Dollar has fallen-below the bullish trend-line that has supported prices over the past two months, and we’re now seeing sellers test August lows in the currency around 94.50. The big driver here appears to be the recovery in EUR/USD, as the pair has now recovered the entirety of the prior August losses, […]
US Recession Risk Is Low, According To Current Q3 GDP Estimates
The flattening yield curve has sparked worries that a new recession is near, but the near-term outlook for growth still looks healthy, based on the latest set of nowcasts for third quarter GDP, as compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate points to a solid 3.3% increase for Q3 output. Although that’s down from […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – Same As It Ever Was
Today was a precious metals option expiration on the Comex. Both gold and silver took a bit of a hit, as the dollar was largely unchanged. Stocks went sideways. The conversations about the economy and the political situation went sideways as well. As a reminder, we are going to have a three day weekend here in the […]
August Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview
Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and […]
