Category Archive: Finance, No picture
One Ring To Rule Them All
From the mailbag: How does one apportion the market effects of the three-body problem between the narrative effects of central bank purchases versus the direct capital flows of central bank activities? And does the distinction matter?— @Hals_Ego I don’t have a strong methodology here, but my best guess is that the Narrative effect on markets […]
E Tariff Jitters Boosted U.S. Economic Growth In The Second Quarter
U.S. real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter as compared with only 2.2% growth in the first. The price index for GDP increased 2.3% in the second quarter, and nominal GDP expanded by 7.4%, also considerably faster than the Q1 growth rate. A 4% expansion of consumer […]
Latest Freight Data Confirms Alarming Slowdown In Global Trade
While the US stock market and economy continue to remain stubbornly immune to the ongoing trade war, the same can not be said for global trade as observed and measured by world freight shipping and volumes. According to the latest Goldman freight data, there has been a gradual slowing in global trade since 4Q17, and […]
US Dollar Sheds Windfall Gains, May Resume Core Uptrend
by Ilya Spivak , Sr. Currency Strategist FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: BULLISH US DOLLAR TALKING POINTS: US Dollar lower as haven-linked gains are unwound Powell speech at Jackson Hole sticks to the status quo Fed outlook shift, reopening of Turkey markets eyed The US Dollar retreated for a second consecutive week, suffering the largest drawdown in over six […]
Tesla CEO Musk Says Staying Public Is Better Path For Company
Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announced in a blog post that his company will remain public. The post reads in part, “Our investors are extremely important to me. Almost all have stuck with us from the time we went public in 2010 when we had no cars in production and only a vision of what […]
SPX Makes A New All-time High
VIX completed a 78.6% retracement from its August 15 high, a normal retracement for the VIX. The probe above critical support at 13.10 triggered a probable buy signal in the VIX. The Cycles Model shows a likely surge strength for the VIX through late August and mid-October. (Bloomberg) Financial markets are god-like in their ability […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 27 And September 3
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of August 27 August 27 Chicago Fed National Activity Index – July 0.35 0.43 0.38 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 28.0 32.3 28.0 […]
China’s Tech Stocks Mired In Trade & Other Woes: What Next?
On Aug 23, Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABA reported lower-than-expected earnings. This resulted in shares of U.S.-listed Chinese tech companies plummeting on Thursday. Chinese tech companies have been suffering since the beginning of the year, having lost billions of dollars in market value. Investors’ concerns over a slowdown in Chinese economy, has been taking a toll on […]
