Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Reuters, Musk, And Emotions
Image Source: PexelsMarket Update: A low-volume, one-day rally on an earnings report showing many government jobs. All hail Keynesianism. Perhaps that’s why gold is now at $2,350 and remains part of our Hedge of Tomorrow argument. After a four-day sell-off, this wasn’t shocking. The trend still features heavy selling across the small-cap universe, technology, and cyclical space. […]
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Along With Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, And Sahm Rule
Image Source: UnsplashHere’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology:Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (bold blue), from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (teal), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in […]
A BRICS Alternative To The SWIFT Payment System Could Accelerate De-Dollarization
Image Source: Unsplash With Russia taking the lead, the BRICS bloc is talking about creating a new payment system that isn’t controlled by the United States and that is not dependent on the dollar.Such a system could accelerate de-dollarization.BRICS is an economic cooperation bloc originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. As […]
Have Markets Been Fooled?
Image Source: Unsplash In this episode of Macro-To-Micro Power Hour from 04/04/24, Samantha LaDuc and Craig Shapiro discuss the dynamics of the financial markets, touching on subjects like the VIX’s movement, geopolitical tensions, and the implications of economic data releases like payroll numbers and CPI. They delve into how these factors influence market positioning and volatility […]
The CRE Bust Is A Slow-Moving Train
Image Source: Pexels Day-to-day we don’t hear much about the commercial office property crash. As The Fed’s Michael Barr said at an event hosted by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition in Washington, “This is the kind of thing where it’s likely to be a very slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward,” […]
Yellen Continues Betting On Interest Rate Declines
Image Source: Unsplash In February, the data showed that Yellen was making a big bet that long-term rates would not stay elevated for long. This was demonstrated by the volume of short-term debt issuance. The Treasury was willing to pay higher rates to keep the maturity of the debt shorter.This continues to be the case. Over the last […]
Amazon’s Final Push?
Image Source: Unsplash Amazon (AMZN) has been steadily and resolutely pushing toward its lifetime high. Amazingly, this high was set way back in 2021, a full 34 months ago, in spite of all the company’s growth since then. This lumbering, multi-trillion-dollar retailer is still sporting a P/E of 62, so it’s not exactly a bar-goon. More By This Author:From Red-Hot To Humdrum […]
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q1
Image Source: Unsplash S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 24Q1 Y/Y blended earnings growth estimate is 5.0%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 7.9%. Of the 20 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q1, 90.0% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 24Q1 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 3.0%. If the […]
FTSE Reverse Early Geopolitical Driven Losses To Close Green
Image Source: Pexels On Friday, British stocks fell by 1% in early tradedue to increased tensions in the Middle East, as investors prepared for the release of important economic data from the US and UK. Losses reversed later in the session as US jobs data supported risk sentiment across the pond leading to an uptick in […]
U.S. Jobs Strength Continues Despite Survey Weakness
The US added 303,000 jobs in March, which is more than anyone was expecting. With next week’s inflation likely to remain hot, the prospect of a June rate cut from the Fed looks slim. Nonetheless, with business surveys universally pointing to weakness over the next 3-6 months we do expect to see more evidence of […]
