Category Archive: Finance, No picture
Recession Watch: Slightly Lower Interest Rates Will Make Zero Difference
Image source: Pixabay GDP is still growing, home prices are still high, and the unemployment rate is still low. But under the surface, the bad numbers just keep coming: U.S. manufacturing sector shrinks for 14th straight month in December (MarketWatch) – The new-orders index fell 1.2 percentage points to 47.1 in December (below 50 indicates contraction). […]
AgMaster Report – Wednesday, Jan. 3
MAR BEANS The lengthy 3-day holiday W/E brought more rain than expected to N Brazil – resulting in a gap-lower opening & a solid down-day – bringing Mar Futures to the lowest levels since late June! Today, the mkt in familiar “turnaround Tuesday” fashion, has reversed course – indicating the down may have been overdone […]
How The December Fed Minutes Influenced Rate Cut Odds For 2024
Image from CME Fedwatch, annotations by MishThe Fed Minutes suggest rate hikes are over but there is no hint of rate cut timing.Three Key Paragraphs In discussing the policy outlook, participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, though they noted that the actual policy path will depend on how the […]
ISM Manufacturing Index Remains In Contraction
The ISM manufacturing index, where any value below 50 indicates contraction, once again came in negative for both the total index, at 47.4, and the more leading new orders subindex, at 47.1. Both have been indicating contraction for more than a year: Which begs the question. Because, despite a nearly flawless 75 year history as […]
Exxon Stock Downgraded Ahead Of Earnings
Image Source: Unsplash Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) has gained about 5.0% over the past three weeks but a Mizuho analyst says it’s time to stop buying this energy stock. Exxon stock lost its buy rating at Mizuho Nitin Kumar downgraded the oil and gas behemoth this morning to “neutral” and lowered his price target to $117.The analyst […]
An Insight Into Russia’s View On Gold
Image Source: Pixabay It is a year since Sergei Glazyev, Commissioner for Integration and Macroeconomics within the Eurasian Economic Commission, disclosed his views on gold and its value in trade. Undoubtedly, his opinion carries weight not only with President Putin to whom he is very close, but he also influenced Russian proposals for a new trade […]
2024 Starts Rough
Assets bid up by irrational amounts eventually end up on clearance sale. Always. This is something to remember with the seven most expensive tech companies ending 2023 at their October 2021 price peaks (chart shown below, courtesy of All Star Charts), even while the Fed funds rate has moved from .25 to 5.5% and earnings […]
Foreign Term Spread Augmented Recession Model Prediction
Image Source: Pixabay Ahmed and Chinn (2023), coauthored with Rashad Ahmed, accepted at JMCB. The US and Foreign 10yr-3mo inversion remain deep (although not as deep as in March when last I posted).Figure 1: US 10 yr-3 mo term spread (blue), GDP weighted foreign (Canada, Germany, Japan, UK) 10 yr-3 mo term spread (tan), 5yr-to-10yr-3mo term spread for rest-of-advanced countries […]
EUR/USD Dips Amid Strong U.S. Data As Market Awaits Fed Minutes
Image Source: Unsplash The EUR/USD remained on the defensive since the first trading day of 2024, falling 0.27% on the day after economic data from the United States (US) suggests the economy remains robust, though the labor market cooled down. At the time of writing, the major is trading at 1.0910 after posting a daily high […]
ISM Manufacturing Production Turns Positive But New Orders Down 16th Month
ISM chart and excerpts below by permission from the Institute for Supply Management® ISM®Please consider the December 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® emphasis mine. The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in December, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point compared to November’s reading of 46.7 percent. “This is the 14th month of […]
