GBP/USD Pares Recent Losses As Cable Traders Brace For Central Bank Outings
Photo by Colin Watts on Unsplash GBP/USD recovered ground on Monday, edging back toward the 1.2700 handle. Cable traders are bracing for a tense week with a central bank double-header on the cards. The Fed is widely expected to trim rates once more, while the BoE is seen standing pat. GBP/USD snapped a three-day losing streak that dragged […]
These Are The Only Stocks That Matter Right Now
Image Source: PexelsSure, I get it: You’re searching for the best, soundest stocks to buy in the market. You seek that secret sauce that will make you profitable heading into 2025.What you may not know is that it’s not necessarily about fundamental or technical analysis. It’s all about a handful of mega-cap stocks, and here’s why.The […]
US-China Decoupling
I am sitting out here in Arizona watching the Semiconductor plants being built. The one we are closest to has been going on for two years now. I am going to guess it is near completion. TSMC Arizona’s first fab is on track to begin production leveraging 4nm technology in first half of 2025. Upcoming […]
Credit Spreads: The Real Sentiment Indicator?
We’ve followed the small business optimism and consumer sentiment indicators as a good barometer for the “mood” around the economy. However these aren’t always great predictors of future economic growth. Since the economy and markets rose quite substantially over the last few years, even though these sentiment indicators have been below their historical averages for […]
Is Selling Gold Right Now A Mistake?
Image Source: Pexels Producer prices came in hotter than expected in November. This came on the heels of a CPI report showing price inflation is sticky.With inflation worries mounting, investors sold gold.Wait. People sold an inflation hedge with increasing signs of inflation? Yes. You read that correctly.We’ve returned to a market dynamic that dominated 2023. Investors worried about sticky […]
If You Thought Grocery Prices Were High, Wait For Mass Deportation
Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.Figure 1: Farm worker wage, 2023$ (blue, left log scale), and share of civilian employment foreign born (tan, right scale), both s.a. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. iFarm worker wage seasonally adjusted by author using X-13, deflated using CPI-U. […]
What Poor Breadth Means For The Stock Market
Image Source: Pexels We are in a seasonally bullish period for the stock market, and every business news channel is currently telling viewers to “get in before you miss out”. What they fail to say is that you need to look at market indicators before you do. The market’s poor breadth is particularly useful to guide […]
NGDP Guardrails: Do The Right Thing
Image Source: Pexels Tyler Cowen recent asked o1 Pro this question: What is the biggest problem with the idea of the Fed subsidizing an NGDP futures market, as economist Scott Sumner has proposed? Feel free to give an answer relying on theoretical macroeconomics, agency problems, finance theory, and the like. Here’s part of the response: One of […]
Semiconductor Index Mini-Breakout
All markets enjoyed a bright day – even the Russell 2000 (IWM) – although the last hour of trading saw some comeback across the indices. Best of the action came from the Semiconductor Index (SOX). Friday’s gains were enough to see the index close above all key moving averages. Today’s trading saw the index close […]
Nasdaq 100 Shakeup: 3 Stocks That Can Gain
Image courtesy of 123rf.com Investors like to see capital-allocation hierarchies, and Nasdaq-100 (NDX) is one of them. Year-to-date, this index grew by 32%, capturing the performance of the 100 largest non-financial firms. Nearly 60% of Nasdaq 100 companies are from the IT sector, dominated by Apple at 8.85% weight, closely followed by Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and […]
