The Major Sector ETFs Talk Turkey
While this is the last Daily of this week, I want to start with a quick rundown of the Economic Modern Family. As Friday is a ½ day and Black Friday, we can only guess that based on a strong yet discerning consumer, Granny Retail XRT should hold the gap up it started this past week […]
Manufacturing And Trade Inventories And Sales: September 2024
Sales The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September is adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes. It was estimated at $1,881.2 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from August 2024 and was up 0.5 percent (±0.3 percent) from September 2023. Inventories Manufacturers’ and trade inventories […]
Business Cycle Indicators For Biden’s Economy In October
One of the last snapshots of the Biden economy show real consumption and personal income rising, with consumption rising 0.6% (vs. consensus of 0.3%), and faster than inflation. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold […]
It’s Not Just Corporate Profits, The Long Leading Housing Sector Is Also Under Pressure
I suspect that both hurricanes as well as mortgage rates somewhat distorted all of the housing reports for October.Last week with existing home sales I noted that “While sales remained in range, price appreciation increased and the pace of inventory accumulation decreased.“There was something of a mirror image in yesterday’s reports on both new and […]
Stocks Snap Win Streaks On Thanksgiving Eve
Stocks fell the day before Thanksgiving, as traders took profits from technology stocks after the latest PCE reading rose on the month and an annual basis. The Dow and Nasdaq both tumbled triple digits, the former snapping a five-day losing streak. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 logged a drop for the first time in seven days. Investors will […]
Wall Street Slips Into A Quasi-Hibernation For The Thanksgiving Stretch
Image source: Pixabay MARKETSAs US traders headed into what amounts to their annual 4-day Thanksgiving holiday event on Wall Street, focus sharpened on inflation and month-end portfolio rebalancing. Stocks dropped amid sticky inflation, yet bond yields and the dollar softened counterintuitively—even amid concerns over looming Trump tariffs. The inconsistency in October’s data has left traders cautious, […]
This Is Not An “Everything Rally”
We are hearing the phrase “everything rally” quite often lately, just as enthusiasm is once again approaching all-time highs.The recent election outcome was the most important event since the Reagan election, or even of the last 100 years, which gave new life to the market rally.However, not everything has been going up. Although some analysts […]
Is Inflation Transitory Or Was It The Decline In The Rate Of Inflation?
PCE vs CPIThe PCE price index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.PCE includes prices paid on behalf of consumers such as Medicare and corporate health insurance.The CPI only counts items directly paid by consumers.As a result of those methodology differences, the CPI overweighs rent while the PCE overweighs health care.Both indexes are flawed because […]
Silver’s 2024 In Review, And What To Watch Out For In 2025
Image Source: Pixabay As we reach the Thanksgiving break it’s a perfect time to reflect on 2024, think of what we can be grateful for, and also review what’s happened this year in the gold and silver markets.This has really been an historic year for the precious metals, ranking really only behind 1980 and 2011 in […]
Gold Price Ahead Of The Thanksgiving Weekend
Today we finally see it – the USDX moved lower at last. USD’s breather here is nothing surprising, and it’s not bearish either.It’s simply normal for a market to correct after launching a rally as strong as what we saw in October and November. In yesterday’s analysis, I wrote the following about the above chart: Yes, […]
