Investor Sentiment More Actionable At Market Bottoms
Today’s weekly AAII Sentiment Survey reports a drop in bullish investor sentiment of 11.1 percentage points to 48.7%. The bullish sentiment reading has been on a steady move higher since November 16 when the bullishness reading was 29.4%. The weekly readings tend to be more volatile and one can look at the 8-week moving average in order […]
Breakeven Refresher Lesson
I suspect in the coming years, we will hear much more about inflation protected securities (TIPS), and the accompanied derived breakeven rate. It is sometimes confusing to understand how nominal rates, real yields (TIPS yield rate) and breakevens all relate to one another, so I have made up a chart to help visualize the relationships. […]
EURUSD – Three Times The Charm?
After correcting for the past few days, the EURUSD skyrocketed right back through the 1.2000 figure after ECB minutes revealed that the Council is clearly starting to think about a taper. With EZ economy enjoying its best performance in more than a decade, there is plenty of scope for EU yields to rise further and […]
Why You Should Never Invest In Long Island Iced Tea Stock
If you are a fan of football, you know the following scenario well. Down 5 points with just seconds remaining, the losing team sends all of their players down the field into the end zone and tosses a hail mary in hopes of a miracle. Sometimes this prayer pays off. Most times it doesn’t. This […]
Bill Gross: The Bond Bear Actually Began 18 Months Ago, After The Brexit Vote
Bill Gross has released his latest investment outlook for Janus Henderson. And it is bearish for bonds. He writes: Bonds, like men, are in a bear market. For both, it’s hard to say when it all began. There was no Helen Reddy “I Am Woman” moment back in June 2012, and then again in July 2016 […]
One-Year Score Card For Trump
We understand our politicians to be human, with much that that implies. In a democracy, politics is a competitive business, which means that generally well-balanced individuals tend to succeed, while those who are obviously unbalanced do not. And as for political power corrupting individuals, that is normally limited by the obligation to periodically seek an […]
PPI Declines First Time Since August 2016
Producer prices unexpectedly declined in December. Trade services fell a steep 0.6 percent. The BLS reports the Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 2.6 percent in 2017 after a 1.7 percent rise in 2016. Goods Highlights Prices for final […]
Energy Sector Predictions For 2018
Look for U.S. oil production to reach a new record high in 2018. Also look for the patience of Tesla investors to be tested this year. The energy recovery is well underway. President Trump continues to roll back regulations aimed at boosting oil production and saving the coal industry. How might this all play out […]
Buffett: Huge Tax Cut Isn’t Baked Into Market
Warren Buffett believes that the corporate tax reform is very bullish for the US stock market, and more importantly, isn’t fully priced in to stock prices. “The tax act is a huge factor in valuation,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “You had this major change in the silent stock holder in American business who […]
EUR/USD Risks Larger Rally As ECB Pledges To Alter Forward Guidance
EUR/USD appears to be making another run at the September-high (1.2092) as the European Central Bank (ECB) strikes an upbeat tone and warns ‘the Governing Council’s communication would need to evolve gradually.’ The account of the December monetary policy meeting suggests the ECB will stay on its current course to wind down the quantitative easing […]
