U.S. Workforce Recovery – Wednesday, Jan. 10
We’ve updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last week’s Employment Report for December. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 148K. The Unemployment Rate The closely watched headline unemployment rate is a calculation of the percentage of the Civilian […]
Better Places To Sell
I am a big huge Kodiak grizzly of a bond bear. It’s probably my number one conviction call. I believe, over time, long rates throughout the world will go higher – a lot of higher. Yet the trader in me questions the wisdom of waking up this morning and grabbing a stack of pink tickets […]
How Did Consumer Borrowing Change After The Great Recession?
from the St Louis Fed Following the run-up in household debt during the early 2000s, consumers have been steadily reducing their overall debt level (i.e., deleveraging) since the Great Recession ended in June 2009. The ratio of household debt to personal income peaked in the mid-2000s at nearly 1.2, and it declined to about 0.9 […]
“It’s A Mystery” – Rigged VIX Settlement Chatter Ignited After Dec Flash-Crash
On the morning of December 20th, we noted that VIX crashed at the open of the cash market. VIX crashed to 8.90 as cash markets opened… In context of the prior and following days, it was an ‘odd’ gap down move that was immediately defended by most as “just a fat finger” except it wasn’t and it […]
On China, Japan And The Eurozone’s Determining US Interest Rates
There are a lot of stories floating around today that moves by central banks in China, Japan and Europe are having – and will continue to have a noticeable impact on US interest rates. Some are even saying this marks the end of the long bond bull market. I am sceptical of these claims because […]
This Is What ‘Max Central Bank Predictability’ Looks Like
Last weekend, on the way to explaining what incoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell meant five years ago when he discussed the Fed’s “short volatility position” at the October 23-24, 2012 meeting, we said the following about how the central bank’s communication strategy dampens vol. across the board (i.e. beyond the obvious way in which rates vol. is suppressed […]
5 Best Energy Mutual Funds To Buy In 2018
After emerging as a top performer in 2016, the energy sector had a relatively turbulent ride in 2017. Till September, oil prices remained volatile and were seen hovering within the $45-$55 per barrel range. However, things have started to look up for this space over the past few months with prices consistently trading above the […]
Are 10-Year Treasury Yields A Shot Across The Bow Of The Real Estate Market?
Over the past month or so Hallmark Abstract Service has explored whether blockchain may at some point in the future disrupt the title insurance industry (‘Can Blockchain Technology Ultimately Eradicate Any Need For Title Insurance In New York State?‘)! In addition, potentially affecting real estate and real estate transactions are the issues surrounding the loss […]
Little Signs Of Life In Import And Export Prices
Import prices rose only 0.1% in December despite a 1.8% jump in energy. Export prices fell 0.1%. Import Prices Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year All Imports: Import prices rose 0.1 percent in December following 0.8-percent advances in 2 of the previous 3 months. The index has not recorded a monthly decline since falling 0.2 percent in […]
Bitcoin 2018: Tailwinds Should Trump Headwinds, Say Top Analysts
Following a feverish 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) should continue to rise in 2018 according to Canaccord Genuity’s top analysts Michael Graham and Robert Young. “While we find it easier to identify a greater number of potential headwinds for BTC value in 2018 (which should lead to event-driven volatility), we think the tailwinds will generally prove more powerful,” say the analysts. […]
