US Dollar Update: Major Bear Market Indicated
As indicated in our September 7, 2017 article a major bear market would be underway with a successful breakdown of major circular support. Such activity would be seen as a repeat of the breakdown that occurred on April 2002. Here’s the 2002 time period for comparison: Also note the bottom and top formations at concentric circles 1¾ […]
Don’t Be Fooled By This 12% Yield
As I read the third quarter earnings release for Consolidated Communications (Nasdaq: CNSL), I wondered why SafetyNet Pro gave the company a low rating. After all, the telecom services provider has paid the same quarterly dividend since 2006 and claimed a reasonable payout ratio of 69% over the past nine months. This is where it’s […]
Construction Spending Accelerates
Construction spending rose more than expected in November. Revisions add to the gains. Here are some highlights from the Census Bureau’s Monthly Construction Spending Report for November 2017. Total Construction Construction spending during November 2017 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,257.0 billion, 0.8 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,247.1 billion. The […]
BoA: Short Crowded Stocks
The start of a new year always brings a deluge of tips from Wall Street analysts trying to pick the winners for the year ahead. Bank of America’s team of quant strategists, led by Savita Subramanian believe that the best strategy, based on past results, is to avoid the most crowded stocks and increase exposure to underweight […]
“Everything Is Overvalued”: Public Pensions Face Dangerous Dilemma In 2018
As we discussed a few weeks ago, being a pension investor these days has absolutely nothing to do with “investing” in the traditional sense of the word and everything to do with gaming discount rates to make their insolvent ponzi schemes look more stable than they actually are.Here was our recent take on CalPERS’ decision to hike […]
European Reform And The German Model To The Rescue
When we talk about winners and losers in Euroland as I did in yesterday’s post, the natural question is, “how can you make everybody a winner?”. And I think this is important while Euroland goes through a cyclical upswing since that’s when reforms can actually be the least painful. And there’s a whole body of work that […]
Market Valuation, Inflation And Treasury Yields: Clues From The Past – Wednesday, Jan. 3
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly data. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — […]
An Unexpected Way To Benefit From Rising U.S. Interest Rates
While we all know that U.S. interest rates have, by and large, been in a downward trend since the early 1980s, over the past few years market participants have begun to think about positioning portfolios for rising interest rates. As the markets prepare for a transition period in which the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) starts to reduce its balance […]
