Strong Corporate Profit Picture A Key Component In Today’s GDP Report
Included with today’s second estimate GDP report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is the preliminary estimate for third quarter corporate profits. The corporate profit measure is reported in several different formats, i.e. with and without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. As I noted in a June post, more information on the adjustments can be found can […]
Syndicated Mortgages Are No Safe Bet
Investments in syndicated mortgages and related securities have been heavily sold to yield-hungry savers and retirees the past few years, especially as our world-famous realty bubble has billowed in Canada. Advertising yields of 7 and 8%+– in a world where GICs and government bonds are paying 1-3%–many who can ill-afford the risk of loss have […]
US Energy: Changing Dynamics
Cyber currencies and their underlying technology, the largely self-imposed drama in the US and UK, and the North Korea’s apparent acquisition of nuclear capability are among the significant macro developments this year. There is another development that like the others was a long time in the making, but seem to have reached a critical mass. It is the US […]
November 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Worsens Marginally
Hurricanes continue to impact claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg/Econoday) were 235 K to 245 K (consensus 240,000), and the Department of Labor reported 238,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the […]
Another 1,000 Point Dow Threshold Bites The Dust
While all the attention shifted towards bitcoin and the pace with which it traded up through different 1,000 point price levels, the DJIA just reminded investors that it too has been on quite a run. With the index on pace to close above 24,000 for the first time today, that now makes it six 1,000 point thresholds […]
Not So Fast, My Friend
The recent sell-off in the U.S. high-yield (HY) market certainly garnered a good deal of attention. Indeed, with HY spreads in general narrowing to levels not seen since 2014, and before that the 2003–2007 period, investors began to entertain the idea that the widening in spreads that occurred from late October through mid-November could be a turning point in […]
One-Day Wonder Or The New Trend?
Well, that was interesting. In what can probably best be described as a fast money rotation game (something I like to call “Hedge Fund Follies”)- where traders sold the big-cap tech leaders and continued to buy the beneficiaries of the tax reform and the improving economy themes with both hands – the DJIA posted a […]
EUR/USD Recovery Takes Shape As ECB See ‘Notable’ Euro-Area Growth
EUR/USD snaps the series of lower highs & lows from earlier this week, with the pair at risk for a more meaningful recovery as the European Central Bank (ECB) adopts an improved outlook for the monetary union. Even though the ECB is on course to carry the quantitative easing (QE) program into 2018, Governing Council […]
Citi Says Sell Gap On Old Navy Concerns Following Outperformance
In a research note this morning, Citi analyst Paul Lejuez downgraded Gap (GPS) to Sell as he believes the risk/reward is skewed to the downside following recent share outperformance and as the company faces more challenging sales comparisons at Old Navy in 2018. SELL GAP: In a research to investors, Citi’s Lejuez downgraded Gap to […]
Lira Tumbles After Zarrab Confirms Erdogan Approved “Secret Iran Gold” Trade
In somewhat of a worst-case scenario, Turkish-Iranian gold trader Reza Zarrab just confirmed that Turkish President Erdogan approved the “secret Iran gold” trade that enabled Iran to evade US sanctions. The immediate reaction is clear. Citi’s FX desk explains why Turkish markets are watching the US trial of a banker so closely. The basics: The US […]
